Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions likely nationwide into at least late March /update 46

Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain likely through at least late March. Renewed fighting has occurred in Khartoum, the neighboring city of Omdurman, South Kordofan State, Al Gezira, and the Darfur region despite both parties' having agreed to meet for talks on aid delivery. The SAF claimed to have regained control of part of Omdurman; rising intercommunal violence has also contributed to the deterioration of the security situation in Darfur. Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several locations across the nation's capital, including in the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport (KRT).

Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred nationwide. Moreover, food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are limited, including in Khartoum. Since the start of the conflict, fighting has left about 13,900 people dead and many thousands of others wounded. Over 6.3 million people have been internally displaced, with another 1.8 million having fled Sudan.

Travel disruptions
Sudan's airspace is open; however, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are almost certainly under heightened surveillance.

Khartoum
Large areas of Khartoum remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum North, part of Omdurman, and near some of the Nile bridges. The SAF reportedly targets RSF positions with occasional airstrikes. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations. Fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted aid workers and their facilities, as well as other civilians.

Other Areas
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in South Kordofan, White Nile, and Al Gezira states. Exchanges of fire have decreased considerably in RSF-controlled areas since the group took control of much of Darfur, with SAF soldiers withdrawing into the Kordofan region. Still, heavy fighting between rival tribes have been reported in several locations, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces have been involved in these clashes. While the status of the previously active states of emergency in Al-Gadarif, South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Red Sea states is not immediately clear, authorities in Al-Gezira are enforcing a dusk-to-dawn curfew until further notice.

Security forces on both sides will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport hubs. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews.