Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 20 forms in the Indian Ocean, tracking west-southwestward just northeast of Madagascar early March 26

Tropical Cyclone 20 has formed in the Indian Ocean and is tracking west-southwestward just northeast of Madagascar early March 26. As of 06:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 774 km (481 miles) north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Forecast models indicate the system will make a close approach to northeastern Madagascar while strengthening into a tropical cyclone through March 29. The storm is forecast to turn to track generally southward just off the coast of Sava Region while strengthening into a tropical cyclone through early March 28, before intensifying further as it turns to track south-southeastward along the southeastern coast of the region through early March 29. The cyclone is likely to turn to track southeastward toward Mauritius while weakening into a severe tropical storm through early March 31. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Meteo Madagascar has issued yellow heavy rain alerts for Atsinanana and southern Analanjirofo regions, red strong wind alerts for northeastern and southern Madagscar, and red strong swell alerts for the coast of northern, southern, and eastern Madagscar ahead of the arrival of the storm.

The Mauritius Meteorological Service has warned of passing showers, mainly over the Central Plateau and the windward slopes March 28. The showers are likely to become frequent and scattered March 29; moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible at times in the night. The weather is likely to deteriorate further March 30, with heavy to violent thundery showers and cyclonic conditions. The open sea will be rough becoming very rough with swells. Storm surge may cause coastal inundation especially along the northern and western coasts especially during high tides from March 29.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.