Iran, Iraq: Adverse weather forecast to continue across the region through at least March 25 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast to continue across much of Iran and Iraq through at least March 25. Heavy rainfall has been ongoing across the region in recent days and has caused flooding, casualties, damage, and evacuations. Further weather systems are forecast across the region over the coming days, bringing showers and storms to parts of both countries. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts. lightning, and possible hail. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas, especially in areas where the ground is already saturated by previous rainfall.

Iranian meteorological authorities have forecast further rainfall, strong winds, and some snowfall over higher elevations across much of the country March 20. Calmer conditions are generally expected March 21 before two further weather systems move over Iran March 22 and March 24, bringing showers to southern, southwestern, and western regions March 22, northeastern and northwestern regions March 23, and northwestern, southern, southwestern, and western regions March 24. Rough seas are expected in both the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.

The Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization has forecast moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms will persist across northern regions March 20-22. Less intense storms are forecast in central and southern regions March 22 and northern regions March 23. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is expected across much of the country March 24.

Heavy rainfall over the Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq since March 18 has led to flooding in the region. Authorities have reported at least two fatalities, ten others injured, and over 100 homes damaged or destroyed in parts of Dohuk Governorate. Flooding has also been reported in the city of Erbil. In Iran, heavy rainfall in recent days has triggered flooding predominantly in western parts of the country. Two villages were evacuated due to the threat of flooding in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. Dozens of villages have been cut off in parts of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province due to roads being made impassable by floodwaters. Minor damage, blocked roads, and the evacuation of some residents in areas prone to landslides have been reported in Lorestan Province. Flooding has also been reported in Ilam and Khuzestan provinces.

The adverse weather could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is particularly possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall totals could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be ruled out in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages and consequent telecommunications disruptions could occur throughout the region. Localized business disruptions are also possible.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas in higher elevations; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.