Iran, Iraq, Turkiye: Adverse weather forecast across region through at least March 20

Severe weather is forecast across much of Iran, Iraq, and southeastern Turkiye through at least March 20. Heavy rainfall will likely affect much of the region over the coming days, and snowfall is possible in elevated parts of the region. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas as well as landslides on unstable slopes. Hazardous travel conditions are likely in mountainous areas due to reduced visibility caused by blowing snow.

Iranian meteorological authorities have cautioned that rainfall will affect northwestern regions from March 18 before spreading across the western half of the country March 19. Scattered showers are forecast across much of Iran, with the exception of southeastern regions, March 20. Officials have warned of potential flooding across southern and western regions over the coming days, with the highest risk of flooding likely in Khuzestan, Ilam, Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces.

The Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization has warned of moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds spreading across much of the country late March 18-19. The heaviest rainfall is forecast in eastern regions along the border with Iran and northern regions. Showers are likely to persist in northern regions March 20.

Turkiye's General Directorate of Meteorology has warned of heavy rainfall in southeastern regions March 18-19. Heavy snowfall and sleet are possible in elevated parts of the affected regions. Officials have issued orange snowfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Hakkari, Sirnak, and Van provinces. Yellow rainfall warnings have been issued for Batman, Diyarbakir, Mardin, Sanliurfa, Siirt, and Sirnak provinces, and yellow snowfall warnings are in place for Batman, Bitlis, Diyarbakir, Mus, and Siirt provinces.

The adverse weather could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is particularly possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall totals could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be ruled out in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages and consequent telecommunications disruptions could occur throughout the region. Localized business disruptions are also possible.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas in higher elevations; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.