Myanmar: Armed clashes intensify in Rakhine State, including Sittwe, amid ongoing fighting in Northern Myanmar /update 6

Significant ground, air transport, and land border transit disruptions will likely continue over the coming weeks as escalating armed clashes in Rakhine State spread to Sittwe. India and Bangladesh have reportedly relocated consulate staff in Sittwe to Yangon. India issued an advisory Feb. 7 urging its nationals to leave Rakhine State immediately. Multiple nations continue to advise their nationals to avoid nonessential or all travel in Rakhine State.

The latest series of attacks comes after the military commenced ground and air operations in response to coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups Oct. 27. The attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Attacks on structures and buildings with foreign ties, such as the Korean-backed BXT port, could also occur, though they are not specifically targeted. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery and airstrikes to target the group's members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. Militants have reportedly occupied over 300 junta military bases and closed at least five official border crossings with China. Resistance forces have effectively gained control of the Kokang Region after seizing the capital of Laukkaing. The conflict has displaced over 800,000 people since Oct. 27; related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of China.

Although the most intense fighting affects northern Shan, Rakhine, and Kachin states, reports indicate related attacks by anti-junta groups across Shan, Kayin, Kayah, Mon, Chin, and Bago states, and Mandalay, upper Sagaing, and Magway regions, including Mandalay City and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Other areas could also see an intensification of similar attacks, likely prompting additional security force deployments.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Yangon, Bago, and Mandalay. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. An escalation in attacks targeting government and military facilities is possible nationwide in the coming weeks, ahead of an April deadline to commence a mandatory conscription program. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at the incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.

Increased security

Curfews are active in Sittwe, Rakhine State, and multiple areas of northern Shan State. Although martial law is no longer in place in the Kokang Region, curbs continue in at least 55 townships, including within Chin, Mon, and Karen states; such movement restrictions and nonessential business closures are likely in other regions if clashes continue. Authorities have increased the presence of security personnel in Mandalay and Yangon. The tightest security is likely at border and entry points to major cities, especially Mandalay. Officials are reportedly conducting vehicle inspections and random stop checks in Mandalay. Businesses could reduce operating hours. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.

Transport and shipping disruptions

Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States

• Lashio and Mandalay

• Yangon and Sittwe

• Chin State and Sagaing Region

• Chin State and Magwe Region

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked, with multiple access routes to Lashio, such as bridges and highways, facing disruptions in the past week. Ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, and India. Border gates to China in Mongla, eastern Shan State, reportedly remain open. Cargo flights between Yangon International Airport (YIA) and Kunming in China are available. Additional ground transport and shipping disruptions, including at the Thai border, are likely at short notice. Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Kalaymyo Airport (KMV) remain closed indefinitely; it is unclear when normal operations will resume. Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.

Utility disruptions

Conflict-hit areas of northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunication outages; Sagaing Region and Rakhine State are reportedly facing severe fuel shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Myanmar. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions.

Civil unrest

Anti-junta demonstrations could increase in frequency in major urban centers, such as Yangon and Mandalay, following the announcement that the government will enforce mandatory military conscription. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Rallies will likely continue nationwide, especially near government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021. Activists often block roadways near demonstration sites to limit the mobility of military personnel.