China: Severe weather forecast to continue across southern regions through at least April 23 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of southern China through at least April 23. As of April 19, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has issued yellow severe convective weather warnings (the second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) across parts of the affected area April 19-20. Thunderstorms are likely across parts of southern Anhui, southwest Shanghai, central and southern Hunan, Jiangxi, southern Guizhou, central and northern Guangxi, and central and northern Guangdong provinces, with more intense storms accompanied by strong winds and hail possible in central Jiangxi, northeastern Guangxi, southern Hunan, and northern Guangdong. Heavy downpours with hourly rainfall totals of more than 2 cm (0.8 inches) are possible in southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, southwestern Shanghai, eastern Hubei, and central and southern Hunan, Jiangxi, western and northern Zhejiang, western Fujian, southern Guizhou, southeastern Yunnan, Guangxi, and central and western Guangdong. Heavier downpours with hourly rainfall totals of 5-7 cm (2-2.8 inches) are possible across central and northern Guangxi, southern Hunan, and central Jiangxi.

Yellow heavy rain warnings are in place for parts of southern Guizhou, southern Hunan, most of Jiangxi, southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, northeastern Guangxi, central and northern Guangdong, and western Fujian provinces April 19-20. The heaviest rainfall totals are expected in parts of eastern Jiangxi, northeastern Guangxi, and northern Guangdong, where rainfall totals of 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) are possible. Further moderate-to-heavy rainfall is forecast across parts of the affected area through April 23.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the east coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.