30 Apr 2024 | 09:51 AM UTC
DRC: Clashes likely to continue in North Kivu Province through May /update 17
Further clashes likely through May as fighting continues near Sake and Goma, North Kivu Province, DRC.
Armed clashes and increased military operations will likely persist in the North Kivu Province through at least late May. Since early February, clashes and bombings involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, international forces, and the M23 rebels have been reported in the province, particularly around Sake and Goma.
Roads to and from Goma remain blocked by rebels, disrupting the transport of goods. While the exact status of the roads is subject to constant change, there are still concerns that M23 militants will capture Sake, which may significantly disrupt the supply of goods to Sake and Goma from the north, west, and south, leaving only the land border with Rwanda as the remaining road exit for the region. However, as of April 30, Sake and Goma remain under government control. According to the UN, fighting in North Kivu has displaced at least 2.68 million people, with over 1 million refugees fleeing to Goma alone.
Further clashes will likely concentrate in the Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories surrounding Goma. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Renewed fighting may cause disruptions on main axes and hinder goods transport. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces injured or killed.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC until the situation stabilizes. Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
The renewed clashes are taking place amid the deployment of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) to combat armed groups in the region, notably the M23. Details concerning the deployment of the SAMIDRC military force remain limited and follows the withdrawal of the East Africa Community (EAC) force deployed in late 2022 and the ongoing withdrawal of the United Nations Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) deployed since 1999. DRC officials have accused these forces of inactivity and connivance with the M23. It is unclear whether the SAMIDRC will be more efficient.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions have increased between Rwanda and its neighbors, particularly with DRC. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). The situation has drawn growing international attention. On Feb. 17, the US attributed the renewed clashes to M23 rebels supported by Rwanda and called for the departure of all Rwandan forces and their military equipment in eastern DRC, citing the threat to civilians, UN and humanitarian actors, as well as commercial flights. The US also called on DRC to cease cooperation with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group. Multiple human rights organizations, the UN, the EU, and the US had previously denounced the alleged support provided by Rwanda to M23 rebels.
The M23 is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term. Since November 2021, the M23 rebel group has increased attacks targeting armed forces in the eastern DRC.
