Iran, Iraq: Adverse weather forecast across the region through at least April 14

Severe weather is forecast across much of Iran and Iraq through at least April 14. Thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of northern and eastern Iraq April 10 and are expected to spread into western Iran. Dust storms are also impacting parts of central and southern Iraq April 10. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to continue across parts of both countries over the coming days. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Iranian meteorological authorities have forecast showers, storms, and strong winds in western regions April 10. Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of the country through April 14, with the heaviest rainfall likely in northern regions April 11 and northern, central, and southeastern regions April 12. Rough seas are also expected in coastal areas and a drop in temperature is forecast across the northern half of the country.

The Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization has forecast light-to-moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms in northern and central regions April 10. Further showers are possible in northern regions April 11 and central and northern regions April 13. A drop in temperatures is also expected across much of Iraq over the coming days and strong winds may generate dust storms in arid parts of the country.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds may also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions may cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.