06 May 2024 | 04:08 PM UTC
Pakistan: Opposition rallies likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-May /update 13
Political protests likely in Pakistan through at least mid-May. Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf plans nationwide rallies May 9; violence likely.
Opposition political parties will likely continue their ongoing nationwide protest campaigns through at least mid-May to demand several concessions and denounce alleged irregularities during the Feb. 8 general elections. The Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party plans to rally at every Provincial Assembly constituency level across the country on May 9; the rallies will coincide with the first anniversary of the violent protests that erupted in 2023 following the detention of former prime minister and PTI leader, Imran Khan. Activists seek to demand the release of Khan.
Additionally, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) party (JUI (F)) will demonstrate in Peshawar on May 9; organizers expect the event to attract at least 4,000 participants. A similar rally may also take place in Karachi the same day. PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) leaders have also recently extended political support to the ongoing farmers' rallies, particularly in Punjab Province.
Further demonstrations by the PTI, JUI (F), and other similar parties are highly likely over the coming days. Potential gathering sites include prominent political party offices, government buildings, police stations, public squares, sports fields, press clubs, and thoroughfares. Organizers could delay or cancel their planned actions at short notice for several reasons, including government restrictions. Imran Khan's supporters could also gather near courthouses in Islamabad during any planned official hearings. Larger rallies could draw tens of thousands of attendees; such events are likely on significant anniversaries.
Authorities will almost certainly monitor any such gatherings and use force, including baton charges and tear gas, to disperse overly unruly crowds. Enhanced security restrictions, such as temporary telecommunication, internet, and public movement curbs, are possible if significant violence erupts. Clashes between police and activists and between members of rival political camps cannot be ruled out. Isolated security incidents, such as small-scale explosions, are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.
Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Do not attempt to navigate protester road blocks; allow police to dismantle them before proceeding Exercise increased caution if operating in Pakistan on May 9. If clashes occur, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Plan for travel delays and potential business disruptions near rally sites. Monitor trusted sources for updates on protest details as organizers may not announce revised plans in advance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Carry valid identification and heed all traffic and security advisories.
The upcoming May 9 rallies have the potential to result in significant violence and produce related disruptions to transportation and business services across Pakistan. In 2023, the May 9 events represented a notable escalation in Pakistan's contemporary political environment, as protests spread nationwide subsequent to the detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. These demonstrations witnessed incidents of violence, including attacks on military facilities, such as the burning of a lieutenant general's residence in Lahore. The protests were fueled by underlying tensions regarding Khan's relationship with the military establishment, despite his initial favorability among military personnel.
Khan's arrest during a scheduled court appearance further aggravated the situation, leading to confrontations between his supporters and law enforcement in major urban centers. The events left at least 10 people killed. Authorities took stringent measures to quell the unrest, resulting in numerous arrests and ongoing legal proceedings against those involved in the disturbances.
