Lesser Antilles: Hurricane Beryl located east-southeast of Barbados and tracking westward toward the Windward Islands as of late June 30 /update 3

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 4 Hurricane, is tracking westward toward the Windward Islands late June 30. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 240 km (150 miles) southeast of Barbados.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain its strength and make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane over Carriacou Island, Grenada, early July 1 before strengthening slightly as it tracks away from the Lesser Antilles through late July 1. Beryl is likely to weaken into a Category 2 Hurricane as it continues tracking generally west-northwestwards across the Caribbean Sea and makes a close approach to Jamaica early-late July 3, passing south of the island. The storm is forecast to weaken further but remain a Category 2 Hurricane as it tracks west-northwestwards and makes another landfall over Quintana Roo State, Mexico, late July 4 before weakening rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks across far southeastern Mexico and exits into the Gulf of Mexico through late July 5. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late June 30, authorities are maintaining the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Martinique and Trinidad.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Dominica, the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area from early July 1. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk in St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) across Barbados and the Windward Islands through July 1, with localized higher maximums of 25 cm (10 inches) possible, especially in the Grenadines.

A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by 1.8-2.7 meters (6-9 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast. Large swells generated by Beryl are likely across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands over the coming days and will reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola July 1. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines have advised residents in low-lying areas to evacuate, especially those in Bequia Lower Bay, Port Elizabeth, Paget Farm, and Chatham Bay on Union Island. Authorities in Barbados have urged all non-essential businesses on the island to close late June 30. A national shutdown is in effect in Saint Lucia as of late June 30; businesses and schools remain closed July 1.

Grenada’s Maurice Bishop International Airport (GND) is closed through early July 2, while Barbados's Grantley Adams International Airport (BGI), Saint Lucia's Hewanorra International (UVF), and George F. L. Charles (SLU) airports are closed until further notice.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.