Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least July 2 /update 5

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least July 2. A combination of meteorological factors, including low-pressure channels, a monsoon trough, and tropical waves, is expected to generate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across many parts of the country over the coming days. A low-pressure area with a possibility of cyclonic development is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula Juhne 28-29 before weakening as it approaches the coasts of northern Veracruz and southern Tamaulipas late June 30, enhancing the rainfall potential in eastern and southern regions. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are possible during storms.

Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas and Tabasco states June 29, Hidalgo, Puebla, Oaxaca, San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz June 30-July 1, and Queretaro July 1. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are forecast across parts of Campeche, Jalisco, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan June 28-29, Chiapas and Tabasco June 28, Colima, Nayarit, Puebla, and Veracruz, June 29, Chiapas, Guerrero, and Tabasco June 30-July 1, Nuevo Leon and Queretaro June 30, and Colima, Jalisco, and Michoacan July 1. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 (1-3 inches) are forecast across many other parts of the country over the coming days. Strong winds may generate whirlwinds and dust storms in parts of central and northern Mexico and possible waterspouts in eastern and southeastern coastal areas over the coming days. High temperatures are expected to persist over northern and northwestern regions, with highs of 40-45 C (104-113 F) possible in parts of Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Sonora June 28-July 1 and Durango June 28.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.