Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across southern and south-central regions through at least June 17 /update 1

Adverse weather is forecast across southern and south-central Mexico through at least June 17. A combination of meteorological factors, including a low-pressure area over the Yucatan Peninsula and two low-pressure areas with a potential for cyclonic development in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, are expected to bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the region over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are possible during storms. Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are forecast over Chiapas State June 13-15, Campeche June 13-14, Tabasco June 13 and June 15-16, Quintana Roo and Yucatan June 14, Veracruz June 15-16, and Oaxaca June 16. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Oaxaca June 13-15, Veracruz June 13-14, Quintana Roo and Yucatan June 13 and June 15, Tabasco June 14, and Campeche and Puebla June 15-16. Totals of 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) are forecast in parts of Guerrero June 13-16, Puebla June 14, and Quintana Roo and Yucatan June 16. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.