31 Jul 2024 | 12:55 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late August /update 12
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late August.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late August amid prevailing heightened tensions. The frequency of Al-Houthi attacks on ships may increase in the northern Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden in early August in response to the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30 and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. Both killings are suspected to have been carried out by Israeli forces. Attacks will likely target perceived Israeli or Israeli-linked ships and may also target other Israeli ports through the use of long-range missiles or uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs). Iranian forces, along with other Iranian-aligned militia groups in the region, may attempt to attack or seize vessels in the Arabian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
Al-Houthi forces continue to target vessels with uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and UAVs, though the number of Al-Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea decreased in July from June. While Al-Houthi attacks usually occur towards the west coast of Yemen, the US-flagged ship Maersk Sentosa was struck by a UAV further east off the coast of Nishtun, Yemen on July 9, marking one of the easternmost Al-Houthi attacks to date. The vessel did not sustain any serious damage. A Liberian-flagged tanker, MT Chios Lion, carrying crude oil to Asia, was struck by Al-Houthi USVs close to the Port of Al-Hudaydah on July 15. The ship sustained damage to its port side but remained operational. Following this, satellite images from July 16 indicated an oil slick extending more than 201 km (125 miles) from Yemen’s Port of Hudaydah, which could pose a further navigational hazard to ships in the Red Sea. Other reported attacks had no serious damages or casualties.
Israeli forces carried out airstrikes on July 20, targeting the Port of Al-Hudaydah, one of Yemen’s main seaports, damaging oil storage and other port facilities. At least six people were killed, and approximately 87 others injured. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Al-Hudaydah was targeted due to Iran’s use of the port to supply weapons to the Al-Houthis. The Israeli strike followed an Al-Houthi UAV attack on Israel’s Tel Aviv on July 19, which killed one person and injured at least 10. No further Al-Houthi attacks have been reported since the attack on the Port of Hudaydah.
US and UK airstrikes continued against Al-Houthi targets throughout July. The US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt arrived in the Red Sea on July 12. USS Theodore Roosevelt took over from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which departed the Red Sea towards the end of June after leading the US response against the Al-Houthis. The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) stated in July that it would take over from Italy in leading the Combined Task Force (CTF) 153 in the Red Sea. The RAN will send several personnel but will not deploy a warship.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as vessels belonging to any shipping company doing business with Israel. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. US, UK, French, Italian, and German naval forces have destroyed several UAVs, missiles, speedboats, and USVs, as well as at least one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea as of early July, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
