Caribbean: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea away from the Windward Islands late July 1 /update 5

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 5 Hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea, away from the Windward Islands, late July 1, following landfall over Carriacou Island, Grenada, early July 1. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 825 km (510 miles) east-southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a Category 4 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward away from the Windward Islands and across the Caribbean Sea through early July 2. The system is expected to weaken into a Category 3 hurricane as it continues tracking generally west-northwestwards across the Caribbean Sea and weaken into a Category 2 hurricane as it passes just south of Jamaica early-late July 3. The storm is forecast to weaken further into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestwards and makes another landfall over Quintana Roo State, Mexico, early July 5 before weakening rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and exits into the Gulf of Mexico early July 6. Beryl is likely to track northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico towards Tamaulipas State in Mexico through late July 6. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 1, authorities are maintaining the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Jamaica.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the coast of Jamaica July 3. Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Jamaica July 3, with localized higher maximums of 30 cm (12 inches) possible. Rainfall of 5-15 cm (2-6 inches) from outer bands of Beryl may impact portions of Hispaniola July 2-3.

A storm surge could raise water levels by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica and by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Large swells generated by Beryl are likely to continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands over the coming days and will reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late July 1-2. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in St. Vincent and the Grenadines have confirmed one fatality on the island of Bequia and extensive damage to structures nationwide. Almost all the buildings on Union Island have been severely damaged or destroyed. Communication disruptions are hampering recovery efforts; the death toll could rise as search and rescue and recovery efforts continue. Most public services are scheduled to resume July 2. St. Vincent and the Grenadines advised residents in low-lying areas to evacuate in advance of the storm, especially those in Bequia Lower Bay, Port Elizabeth, Paget Farm, and Chatham Bay on Union Island; more than 1,000 people are being accommodated in around 41 emergency shelters across the islands.

In Grenada, a state of emergency has been declared through early July 2. More than 2,000 people are being accommodated in around 100 emergency shelters across Grenada Island, and around 124 people are in emergency shelters on Carriacou Island. Reports indicate widespread damage across Grenada. Authorities in Barbados urged all nonessential businesses on the island to close late June 30 and more than 400 people were housed in hurricane shelters. A national shutdown is in effect in Saint Lucia as of late June 30; businesses and schools remain closed July 1. Schools have been closed, and shelters have been opened on Tobago Island in Trinidad and Tobago. All ferry sailings between Trinidad and Tobago islands have been canceled July 1. As of late July 1, most of Grenada is without power or telecommunications, while around 10,000 people across Martinique are without power, with the worst affected in Lorrain, Saint-Joseph, Gros-Morne, Ducos, Riviere Pilote, and Sainte-Luce. Power outages have also been reported on Tobago Island in Trinidad and Tobago. Further severe weather impacts are likely in the Windward Islands over the coming hours; however, it may take some time for authorities to conduct damage assessments due to the severe conditions, especially in remote areas.

Grenada's Maurice Bishop International Airport (GND) is closed through early July 2, while St. Vincent and the Grenadine's Argyle International Airport (SVD), Barbados's Grantley Adams International Airport (BGI), Saint Lucia's Hewanorra International (UVF), and George F. L. Charles (SLU) airports are closed until further notice. Caribbean Airlines has also canceled and revised the departure times of several flights out of Trinidad and Tobago due to Beryl.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.