Caribbean: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica late July 2 /update 6

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 4 Hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea, towards Jamaica, late July 2, following landfall over Carriacou Island, Grenada, early July 1. As of 20:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 580 km (360 miles) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea and makes landfall over far southern Jamaica the afternoon of July 3. The storm is forecast to weaken further into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestwards and makes another landfall over Quintana Roo State, Mexico, early July 5 before weakening rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and exits into the Gulf of Mexico late July 5. Beryl will likely track northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico towards Tamaulipas State in Mexico through the afternoon of July 7. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 2, authorities are maintaining the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

• Hurricane Watch: South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican

• Republic to Anse d'Hainault, and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the coast of Jamaica July 3 and the Cayman Islands late July 3. Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Jamaica, the southwestern Haitian Peninsula, and the Barahona Peninsula in the southwest Dominican Republic through late July 3, with possible localized higher maximums of 30 cm (12 inches). Isolated totals of more than 15 cm (6 inches) are also forecast across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. Rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely over the Cayman Islands July 3-4.

A storm surge could raise water levels by 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica, by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Large swells generated by Beryl will likely continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands over the coming days and will reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through July 3. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Jamaica have urged residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas, especially those in Portland and St. Thomas through to the Manchioneal area and East Rural St. Andrew, to assess their situation and evacuate as early as possible. The National Fisheries Authority (NFA) is urging fisherfolk to cease operations and those on the cays to return to the mainland.

The Sangster International (MBJ), Norman Manley International (KIN), and Ian Fleming International (OCJ) airports are scheduled to close late July 2-3. Airlines are operating additional evacuation flights before the scheduled closure. The reopening of the airports will be announced pending post-storm assessments. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority plans to cease operations at Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) 18:00 July 3, and at the Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac 15:00 July 3. Cayman Airways (KX) is operating additional flights so people can evacuate the islands before Beryl arrives.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.