Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Beryl tracking just south of Jamaica as it moves west-northwestward as of late July 3 /update 8

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 4 hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea, just south of Jamaica, late July 3. As of 16:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 100 km (65 miles) west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the system will continue to weaken as it tracks south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands July 3-4 before making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in Mexico's Quintana Roo State early July 5. The system is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula July 5. Beryl is subsequently forecast to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward in the Gulf of Mexico July 6-7 before again making landfall in Mexico's Tamaulipas State late July 7 or early July 8. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 3, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun.

• Hurricane Watch: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Watch: The coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass near the southern coast of Jamaica late July 3, bringing severe hurricane-force winds, storm surge, and waves to the country. The center of the storm will then track near the Cayman Islands late July 3 or early July 4, bringing similar conditions, before making landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula by early July 5. Damaging winds, treacherous storm surge, and heavy rainfall will likely begin to affect parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize from late July 4 as Hurricane Beryl approaches.

Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) with possible localized higher maximums of up to 30 cm (12 inches) across Jamaica through late July 3. Additional rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are forecast over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely over the Cayman Islands July 3-4, as well as 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) with localized maximums up to 20 cm (8 inches) over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize from late July 4 through July 5.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 1.8-2.7 meters (6-9 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica, by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands, and by 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. The swells will likely reach the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba late July 3, as well as the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday July 4. These swells will probably cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness reported on the afternoon of July 3 that some 500 people had been placed in shelters that have been established across the island. Authorities in Jamaica have also declared the country to be a disaster area. The decree, which is slated to remain in effect until at least July 10, gives authorized officers the power to order evacuations of certain high-risk areas, including those at or below sea level, locations that are prone to flooding or landslides, and areas in the vicinity of gullies or waterways. Holness has also asserted that security forces will mobilize to maintain order and assist in relief efforts once the storm passes.

Sangster International (MBJ), Norman Manley International (KIN), and Ian Fleming International (OCJ) airports suspended flight operations late July 2 due to the approach of the storm. The reopening of the airports will be announced pending post-storm assessments. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority announced that they were planning to cease operations at Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) at 18:00 July 3 and at the Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac at 15:00 July 3.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.