Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica early July 3 /update 7

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 4 Hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea, towards Jamaica, early July 3. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 300 km (185 miles) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly but remain a Category 4 hurricane as it passes just south of Jamaica during the afternoon July 3. The storm is forecast to weaken into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestwards across the Caribbean Sea and passes south of the Cayman Islands early July 4. Beryl will weaken further into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall over Quintana Roo State, Mexico, early July 5. The system is expected to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and exits into the Gulf of Mexico July 5. Beryl will likely strengthen back into a hurricane as it tracks northwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico July 6-7, before making another landfall over Tamaulipas State in Mexico early July 8. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of early July 3, authorities are maintaining the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

• Hurricane Watch: South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault, and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the coast of Jamaica July 3 and the Cayman Islands late July 3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by late July 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the south coast of Hispanola July 3 and are possible along portions of the coast of Belize late July 4-early July 5.

Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) with possible localized higher maximums of up to 30 cm (12 inches) across Jamaica July 3. Additional rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are expected over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) with localized higher maximums of up to 15 cm (6 inches) are likely over the Cayman Islands late July 3-4 and 5-15 cm (2-6 inches) with localized maximums up to 20 cm (8 inches) over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize late July 4-5.

A storm surge could raise water levels by 1.8-2.7 meters (6-9 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica, by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands, by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the southern coast of Hispaniola, and by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and will continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands through at least July 4. Swells are expected to reach the Cayman Islands July 3. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Jamaica have issued evacuation orders for low-lying and flood-prone areas and hundreds of emergency shelters have been established across the island. Authorities have declared Jamaica a disaster area July 3-10 and an islandwide curfew is in place between 06:00 and 18:00 July 3. The National Fisheries Authority (NFA) is urging fisherfolk to cease operations and those on the cays to return to the mainland.

The Sangster International (MBJ), Norman Manley International (KIN), and Ian Fleming International (OCJ) airports suspended flight operations late July 2 due to the approach of the storm. The reopening of the airports will be announced pending post-storm assessments. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority plans to cease operations at Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) 18:00 July 3 and at the Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac 15:00 July 3. Cayman Airways (KX) is operating additional flights so people can evacuate the islands before Beryl arrives.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.