Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward to the south of the Cayman Islands early July 4 /update 9

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 3 hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea to the south of the Cayman Islands, having skirted the southern coast of Jamaica July 3. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (55 miles) south-southeast of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward south of the Cayman Islands on July 4. Beryl will weaken further into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall over Mexico's Quintana Roo State early July 5. The system is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the Gulf of Mexico on July 5. Beryl is subsequently forecast to slowly strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico July 6-7 before again making landfall over the northeastern coast of Mexico's Tamaulipas State late July 7 or early July 8. The system is then expected to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it moves over the US-Mexico border area between Tamaulipas and Texas from July 8-early July 9. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of early July 4, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun.

• Hurricane Watch: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche.

• Tropical Storm Watch: The coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands in the coming hours and are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area of the Yucatan peninsula late July 4-early July 5. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch area of the Yucatan Peninsula from late July 4. Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely over the Cayman Islands July 4, as well as 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) with localized maximums up to 25 cm (10 inches) over the Yucatan Peninsula from late July 4 through July 5.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands, by 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area, and by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the coasts of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands and are expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of Central America late July and parts of eastern Mexico and the US Gulf coasts late July 5. These swells will probably cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hundreds of people in Jamaica are being accommodated in emergency shelters established across the island as Beryl passed close to the south coast July 3 and authorities have declared the country to be a disaster area. The decree, which is slated to remain in effect until at least July 10, gives authorized officers the power to order evacuations of certain high-risk areas, including those at or below sea level, locations that are prone to flooding or landslides, and areas in the vicinity of gullies or waterways. Sangster International (MBJ), Norman Manley International (KIN), and Ian Fleming International (OCJ) airports suspended flight operations late July 2 due to the approach of the storm. The reopening of the airports will be announced pending post-storm assessments. As of early July 4, authorities have reported one fatality after a tree fell on a home in Hanover Parish and initial reports indicate some damage to homes, power outages, and blocked roads across southern parts of the island, including Manchester and St. Elizabeth parishes. Damage assessments are ongoing and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is confirmed.

Authorities in the Cayman Islands have urged residents to shelter in place during the storm's passing and have established around 18 emergency shelters for those unable to shelter at home. The Cayman Islands Airports Authority announced that operations would cease at Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) at 18:00 July 3 and at the Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac at 15:00 July 3.

Authorities in Quintana Roo State in Mexico have begun evacuating some at-risk locations ahead of Beryl's approach, including areas of Felipe Carrillo Puerto and Tulum municipalities. Emergency shelters have been established across the state, and schools will be closed July 4-5. Authorities in Belize have also begun preparing hurricane shelters in anticipation of Beryl's arrival.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.