Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Beryl tracking west-northwestward toward Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late July 4 /update 10

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 2 hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as of late July 4, having skirted the southern coast of Jamaica on July 3 and the Cayman Islands early July 4. As of 17:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 345 km (215 miles) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over Mexico's Quintana Roo State early July 5. The system is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula through the afternoon of July 5 and then into the Gulf of Mexico by late July 5. Beryl is subsequently forecast to slowly strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico July 6-7 before again making landfall over the northeastern coast of Mexico's Tamaulipas State late July 7 or early July 8. After making landfall in Tamaulipas State, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over the US-Mexico border between Tamaulipas and Texas from July 8 to the afternoon of July 9. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 4, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa

  Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel.

• Hurricane Watch: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche.

• Tropical Storm Watch: The coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are forecast to reach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in the coming hours. Beryl will likely produce rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches), as well as localized totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches), over the Yucatan Peninsula from late July 4 into July 5.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Large swells generated by Beryl were impacting the coasts of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula as of late July 4 and will probably reach eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast by late July 5. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Shelters established across Jamaica accommodated hundreds of people as Hurricane Beryl passed close to the country's southern coast on July 3. Authorities have declared the country to be a disaster area. The decree, which is slated to remain in effect until at least July 10, gives authorized officers the power to order evacuations of certain high-risk areas, including those at or below sea level, locations that are prone to flooding or landslides, and areas in the vicinity of gullies or waterways. Authorities also imposed a curfew in Jamaica that had been lifted as of July 4. Sangster International (MBJ), Norman Manley International (KIN), and Ian Fleming International (OCJ) airports suspended their flight operations as the storm approached. Officials scheduled Sangster International Airport (MBJ) to reopen on the evening of July 4, and Norman Manley International Airport (KIN) is slated to reopen early July 5.

As of late July 4, authorities had confirmed that Hurricane Beryl caused at least one death in Jamaica; officials will probably update the country's casualty figures over the coming hours. Initial reports indicate that the storm also damaged some coastal infrastructure, agriculture, and housing in the country's southern parishes, including Manchester and St. Elizabeth parishes, and blocked roads across the island with debris. Power outages affected more than 400,000 customers across Jamaica (i.e., about 60 percent of all electricity customers in the country) overnight July 3-4. Officials were continuing to conduct damage assessments as of July 4, and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is confirmed.

Local authorities have given the all-clear for all three of the Cayman Islands as of July 4 after Hurricane Beryl passed the territory. Additionally, the Cayman Islands Airports Authority reopened Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman and Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac on July 4 after closing them on July 3 due to Beryl.

Authorities in Quintana Roo, Mexico, have begun evacuating some at-risk locations ahead of Beryl's forecast landfall in the state, including areas of Felipe Carrillo Puerto and Tulum municipalities. Emergency shelters are also being prepared across the state, and officials have suspended classes at all of the state's educational institutions July 4-5. Tulum International Airport (TQO) is closed until at least 12:00 July 7.

Officials in Cameron County, Texas, have issued a voluntary evacuation notice for people in RVs, especially guests staying at county parks, including Isla Blanca Park, Andy Bowie County Park, and Adolph Thomae Jr. County Park. Meanwhile, authorities in Belize have cautioned individuals in the north of the country to prepare for flooding in connection with Beryl. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.