MENA: Heightened tensions likely through at least early August amid concerns over potential escalation in Israel-Hamas War

Tensions will likely remain high in several countries in the MENA region through at least early August amid rising concerns over the potential for an escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Israel's relations with Iran and Lebanon have become particularly tense following the targeted assassinations of Lebanese Hizballah (LH) senior commander Fuad Shukr in the Haret Hreik area of Beirut's southern suburb of Dahieh late July 30 and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran early July 31. The killings were in response to a July 27 rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights which left 12 children dead. The Iranian government has threatened to strike back at Israel; however, it as yet remains unclear what form any such retaliatory action may take.

The killings of Shukr and Haniyeh have greatly increased concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a broader, long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as Tehran's proxy forces in other countries across the region, such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Although several of the world's governments have undertaken efforts in recent days to prevent such an escalation, various nations have also advised their citizens to avoid travel to potentially affected parts of the region due to the unpredictable security situation. As of July 31, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, US, and UK have issued new warnings advising against all travel to Lebanon and recommending that their citizens currently in the country depart while commercial flights remain available. Nevertheless, the same seven nations have made no appreciable changes to their already existing travel advice for other countries in the region, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

Numerous flight disruptions could affect airports across the region in the event of a significant escalation in hostilities, making departure via commercial means from the locations involved extremely difficult. Even a one-time retaliatory strike against Israel by Iran or its proxies could endanger air traffic and prompt airport closures, albeit for the short term. Countries directly involved in any armed confrontation may close their airspaces on short notice; neighboring countries not involved in hostilities, such as Jordan, could also close their airspaces as a precaution or due to the risk of projectile fire impacting their airports' flight operations.

Several airlines have already canceled flights scheduled to operate via Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) following the recent increase in regional tensions. Lufthansa (LH) has suspended all its flights to BEY until August 5, with Air France (AF), Aegean Airlines (A3), and Transavia (HV) suspending their services to the Lebanese capital until at least Aug. 4. Other carriers that had canceled flights to Beirut, including Royal Jordanian (RJ), have since decided to restart their flight operations to BEY. Emirates (EK) has issued a travel advisory stating that no passengers would be permitted to transit through Dubai to Beirut Aug. 1-2 due to the security situation in Lebanon; however, passengers starting their journeys in Dubai or Beirut would still be permitted to travel. Additional airlines could announce similar measures.

Any broader conflict that develops could prompt local authorities to impose heightened security measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice. The movement of military personnel and imposition of checkpoints would probably disrupt travel along primary and secondary roads. Cross-border clashes could also result in disruptions to utilities, including electricity, water distribution, and telecommunications. Protest activity may materialize in locations across the region over the coming days in reaction to the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh, any armed escalation that may occur, or any heightened security measures that authorities impose.