Mexico: Hurricane Beryl approaching the Yucatan Peninsula early July 5 /update 11

Hurricane Beryl, currently a Category 2 hurricane, is tracking west-northwestward over western the Caribbean Sea and is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as of early July 5. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 65 km (40 miles) east of Tulum, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over Mexico's Quintana Roo State near Tulum in the coming hours. The system is then forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula through the afternoon of July 5 and then into the Gulf of Mexico by late July 5. Beryl is subsequently forecast to slowly strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico July 6-7 before again making landfall over the Gulf coast near the US-Mexico border between Tamaulipas and Texas very early July 8. After making landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northwestward across southern Texas July 8 before weakening further into a depression and dissipating as it tracks north-northeastward into south-central Texas July 9-early July 10. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of early July 5, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa

  Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel.

• Hurricane Watch: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, as well as the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche.

• Tropical Storm Watch: The coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are expected over the hurricane warning area and are possible in the watch area of the Yucatan Peninsula in the coming hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast in the coming hours and will spread over the Yucatan Gulf coast through July 5. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize July 5. Beryl will likely produce rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches), as well as localized totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches), over the Yucatan Peninsula July 5; the heavy downpours may trigger flash flooding in places. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected across parts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas around July 7-9.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the coasts of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula early July 5 and are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast by late July 5. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities are urging residents across the Yucatan Peninsula to shelter in place during the passing of the storm, and hundreds of shelters have been established across the region for people in at-risk areas. Authorities in Quintana Roo State have carried out preventative evacuations in some at-risk locations ahead of Beryl's forecast landfall in the state, including areas of Felipe Carrillo Puerto and Tulum municipalities and Holbox Island. The National Civil Protection Coordination has issued red alerts (the highest level on a four-tier scale) across Quintana Roo and much of Yucatan states. Orange alerts are in place across the rest of Yucatan and much of Campeche states. Schools have been closed across Quintana Roo, Yucatan, and Campeche. Tulum International Airport (TQO) is closed until at least 12:00 July 7. Hundreds of flights have been canceled at Cancun International Airport (CUN) and dozens at Merida International Airport (MID) due to the severe weather.

Officials in Cameron County, Texas, have issued a voluntary evacuation notice for people in RVs, especially guests staying at county parks, including Isla Blanca Park, Andy Bowie County Park, and Adolph Thomae Jr. County Park. Meanwhile, authorities in Belize have cautioned individuals in the north of the country to prepare for flooding in connection with Beryl. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.