Mexico: Tropical Storm Beryl tracking west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula late July 5 /update 12

Tropical Storm Beryl is tracking west-northwestward over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula late July 5, following landfall north of Tulum, Quintana Roo State, earlier in the day. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 55 km (35 miles) east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will exit into the Gulf of Mexico over the coming hours. Beryl is forecast to slowly strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward then north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico July 6-7 before again making landfall over Texas the afternoon of July 8. After making landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical depression as it tracks northward then north-northeastward across southern Texas July 8; Beryl will subsequently weaken further and dissipate over eastern Texas the afternoon of July 10. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of late July 5, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Watch: The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward

  to Sargent and the northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el

  Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo

  Catoche to Campeche

• Storm Surge Watch: The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward

  to Sargent.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the Gulf coast of the peninsula over the coming hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the western Gulf coast July 7. Beryl will likely produce rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches), as well as localized totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches), over the Yucatan Peninsula; the heavy downpours may trigger flash flooding in places. Rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) are expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas late July 7-10.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) in areas of onshore winds along Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and from Baffin Bay to Sargent in Texas and by 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, Texas. Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula and are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast by late July 5. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities are urging residents across the Yucatan Peninsula to shelter in place during the passing of the storm, and hundreds of shelters have been established across the region for people in at-risk areas. Authorities in Quintana Roo State have carried out preventative evacuations in some at-risk locations ahead of Beryl's forecast landfall in the state, including areas of Felipe Carrillo Puerto and Tulum municipalities and Holbox Island. The National Civil Protection Coordination has issued red alerts (the highest level on a four-tier scale) across Quintana Roo and much of Yucatan states. Orange alerts are in place across the rest of Yucatan and much of Campeche states. Schools have been closed across Quintana Roo, Yucatan, and Campeche. Tulum International Airport (TQO) is closed until at least 12:00 July 7. Hundreds of flights have been canceled at Cancun International Airport (CUN) and dozens at Merida International Airport (MID) due to the severe weather. Reports indicate that around 40 percent of Tulum is without power.

Officials in Cameron County, Texas, have issued a voluntary evacuation notice for people in RVs, especially guests staying at county parks, including Isla Blanca Park, Andy Bowie County Park, and Adolph Thomae Jr. County Park. Kelberg County also issued voluntary evacuation orders for Loyola Beach, Baffin Bay, and any low-lying areas that may see flooding; HM King High School will open July 6 as an emergency shelter. Meanwhile, authorities in Belize have cautioned individuals in the north of the country to prepare for flooding in connection with Beryl. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.