31 Jul 2024 | 05:35 PM UTC
Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions likely nationwide into at least late August /update 52
Fighting among rival factions likely to continue in Sudan, and particularly in Khartoum, through at least late August.
Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces remain likely through at least late August. Renewed fighting has erupted in several cities, including Khartoum, Omdurman, Al-Fashir (North Darfur), and Sennar City. On July 31, SAF reported intercepting two drone attacks targeting a military ceremony attended by Army Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Gebit, Red Sea State. The incidents resulted in five fatalities and occurred amid ongoing preparations for US-mediated talks between the warring factions scheduled for Aug. 14 in Geneva, Switzerland. Rising intercommunal violence has also contributed to the deterioration of the security situation in Darfur. Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several locations across the nation's capital, including in the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport (KRT).
Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred nationwide. Moreover, food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are limited, including in Khartoum. Since the start of the conflict, fighting has left more than 15,550 people dead and many thousands of others wounded. The conflict has displaced approximately 11 million people, both within Sudan and across its borders.
Travel disruptions
Sudan's eastern region airspace is open; however, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are almost certainly under heightened surveillance.
Khartoum
Authorities have ordered all foreign nationals to leave Khartoum State due to reports of foreign fighters among RSF. While the order was likely issued out of an abundance of caution, the Sudanese Director of the Foreigners and Immigration Control Department, Colonel Nizar Khalil, in consultation with the Khartoum State Security Coordination Committee, announced that the measure was to ensure the safety of foreign nationals amid ongoing domestic security challenges.
Large areas of Khartoum remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum North, part of Omdurman, and near some of the Nile bridges. The SAF reportedly targets RSF positions with occasional airstrikes. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations. Fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine. Authorities have also imposed an indefinite curfew on pedestrian and vehicular movement between the hours of 23:00-5:00, with all commercial activities also being banned nightly during the same time frame.
Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted aid workers and their facilities, as well as other civilians.
Other Areas
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in Sennar, South Kordofan, White Nile, and Al Gezira states. On June 29, the RSF captured Singa, the capital of Sennar State, bringing the conflict to Gedaref and Blue Nile States as well as the Ethiopian border. Still, heavy fighting between rival tribes has been reported in several locations, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces have been involved in these clashes. While the status of the previously active states of emergency in Al-Gadarif, South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Red Sea states is not immediately clear, authorities in Al-Gezira are enforcing a dusk-to-dawn curfew until further notice.
Security forces on both sides will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport hubs. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews. Amid the ongoing armed conflict, increased security measures are certain in Khartoum State. Authorities could impose further enhanced security measures on foreign nationals abroad
Defer travel to Sudan until the situation stabilizes. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.
The fighting is a continuation of the years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF - a move that would effectively result in Hemedti's losing control over his forces.
Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December 2023. The deal's framework called for the formation of a transitional civilian government in early April 2024; however, several issues hindered implementation, including the ongoing disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over integrating the RSF into the military.
The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down a 2003 uprising in Darfur. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.
