Turkiye-Syria: Increased security and additional protests likely in border regions through mid-July as tensions escalate /update 2

Increased security is likely in the Turkiye-Syria border regions through at least mid-July as tensions escalate between protesters and Syrian and Turkish security forces. Protests broke out in several cities in northern Syria, including Al Bab, Afrin, Aleppo, and Idlib, on July 1 in response to anti-Syrian demonstrations that occurred in Turkiye on June 30 after a Syrian national allegedly harassed a minor in Kayseri. Additional anti-Syrian protests have occurred in Turkiye since June 30, spreading to Hatay, Gaziantep, Konya, Bursa, and Istanbul districts. Reports indicate that several hundred protesters were arrested. Further demonstrations are likely in northern Syria to denounce increased attacks on Syrians in Turkiye and oppose Turkiye's continued presence in northern Syria.

Authorities controlling the Bab Al-Hawa border crossing between Syria and Turkiye announced the closure of the crossing until further notice. Turkiye also announced the closure of the Bab Al-Salamah, Al-Rai, and Jarabulus crossings as tensions between protesters and security services escalated. Reports indicate that several cities in southern Turkiye and northern Syria have experienced internet blackouts and restricted access to social media since July 1. On July 3, Turkish authorities ordered the suspension of internet services in Ras Al-Ain city in northern Syria.

Syrian and Turkish authorities will likely maintain an increased security presence across the border regions. Further anti-Syrian protests in Turkiye and anti-Turkish demonstrations in Syria will likely occur at popular protest sites, such as border crossings, government buildings, public squares, and city centers. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near all protests, particularly at the border crossings. Authorities could also implement internet restrictions in additional cities throughout southern Turkiye and northern Syria to de-escalate tensions. Further clashes between security forces and protesters are possible, particularly if demonstrators are overly disruptive or fail to comply with police instructions.