India: Heightened security, disruptions likely to persist in Manipur through at least late September amid renewed tensions /update 27

Increased security, rallies, and related disruptions will very likely persist in Manipur through at least late September due to renewed ethnic tensions, primarily between the Kuki and Meitei communities. The violence, which began in May 2023, has left over 220 people dead and 1,100 others wounded. Isolated gunfire and other security incidents, including arson, continue to occur in various locations; security forces have detained more than 180,000 people as a preventive measure since tensions first flared up.

On Aug. 1, the Meitei and Hmar communities in Jiribam District reached an agreement to cooperate with security forces and ensure controlled movement in the area. On Aug. 2, unknown assailants launched an attack on Lampani village in Jiribam District, using gunfire and setting an abandoned residence on fire. Officials have since maintained an increased security presence in the affected district. Additionally, the government has deployed paramilitary forces along various state highways to ensure unimpeded transport movement in Manipur.

Activists continue to stage sporadic gatherings across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have significantly disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.