Pakistan: Heightened security measures in place nationwide ahead of Independence Day Aug. 14

Pakistani security forces are on high alert nationwide in the run-up to Independence Day, Aug. 14, amid concerns of civil unrest and possible terror attacks by militant groups. Authorities will deploy to monitor commemorative events and other demonstrations. Heightened security around vital installations, including government buildings, police and military facilities, major hotels, markets, and transport hubs, is likely. Financial institutions, government offices, and most commercial establishments will close for the national holiday.

Security protocols are typically the tightest in Islamabad; the main Independence Day event, a flag-raising ceremony, usually takes place at the Jinnah Convention Center. Smaller ceremonies will also take place in other provincial capitals, government offices, places of worship, monuments, and public squares nationwide. Increased security measures, including vehicle checkpoints, road closures, and traffic diversions, will likely prompt transport disruptions.

The overall threat from terrorism remains high across Pakistan. Islamist groups, chiefly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) could stage suicide bombings targeting government officials, Shi'a Muslims, and minority religious sites. Separatist groups in Balochistan and Sindh provinces may also escalate attacks and target rail infrastructure, security installations, and other economic and developmental projects, like energy plants. Targeted attacks on Chinese and Western entities cannot be ruled out. On Aug. 10, authorities said they foiled an attempt by the separatist Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army to stage an attack in Larkana, Sindh Province, Aug. 14. No other specific threat has been publicized.

Rallies by various groups will likely occur through Aug. 14. The main opposition party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), has called for marches from Aug. 13 at public squares of major cities; the largest event is likely from 23:00 Aug. 13 at Lahore's Liberty Chowk intersection. Several political parties and other organizations typically hold solidarity events and anti-India demonstrations over the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir administered by India. Other anti-government protests are possible. Localized traffic and business disruptions are likely around protest sites, especially if activists march on or block roadways. Some protests could turn violent if police forcibly disperse gatherings. The most disruptive gatherings will probably occur in Islamabad, Lahore, and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Security personnel will likely monitor all events and may forcibly disperse unruly crowds and/or unauthorized gatherings. Temporary and localized restrictions on mobile internet services are possible to prevent or control violence, especially in parts of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces with significant terror activity.