Sri Lanka: Campaign and registration events to take place nationwide ahead of presidential elections scheduled Sept. 21

Sri Lanka will hold presidential elections on Sept. 21. Over 17 million voters will participate, while at least 32 candidates will contest. Polling day is typically declared a public holiday, and results are usually announced within one day after voting. Over 400 campaign events, including rallies and parades, are planned in the coming weeks, likely prompting localized disruptions. Up to a few thousand people could attend campaign events, especially those hosted by incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and candidates from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parties. Key events include:

• Aug. 15: Candidates will officially file nominations at the Election Registrar's Office along Sarana Road in the Rajagiriya suburb. Traffic curbs will be active 08:00-14:00 between Welikada and Ayurveda junctions, affecting movement to and from Colombo.

• Aug. 16: SJB will hold an inaugural rally, from 14:00 at the Sathyawadi Ground in Kurunegala.

• Aug. 17: JVP rallies will occur in Tangalle town of Hambantota District from 14:00, Matara City from 15:30, and Galle City's Samanala Ground in the evening. An SJB event is also planned in Matara District.

• Aug. 17: President Wickremesinghe will address a rally at the Salgadu Ground in Anuradhapura.

• Aug. 21: SLPP campaign event scheduled in the Kada Panaha area of Anuradhapura.

Additional rallies are certain in the coming weeks. Political tensions typically escalate around election periods in Sri Lanka. Clashes between rival party supporters, as well as with police, could occur during campaigning, polling, and announcement of results. Minor bombings, shootings, and other targeted attacks on candidates and party members, as well as political party offices, campaign events, and polling stations, are also possible. Such incidents could spark mass demonstrations that involve arson and vandalism. Other security disturbances may also occur in the aftermath of the vote, especially if there are any allegations of poll irregularities. 
 
Election campaigns and political controversies could prompt increased inter-religious and inter-ethnic tensions in areas with mixed populations. Authorities are highly likely to forcibly disperse gatherings and implement localized curfews and movement restrictions if major incidents of communal violence occur. Officials could also impose mobile internet and other telecommunication restrictions in affected areas.

Although authorities have not publicized any threat to the election, strict counter-terror vigilance is likely following the fatal Easter bombings in May 2019, and long-standing Tamil separatist elements in north and east Sri Lanka. Terrorism concerns will likely prompt heightened security and related transport disruptions at government buildings, major railway stations and other transport hubs, religious sites, security installations, and tourist areas.

Protests over government policies are possible ahead of and immediately after the elections, mainly in Colombo and other cities by worker unions. Potential gathering locations include public squares, government offices, railway stations, and major intersections. Localized traffic disruptions will probably occur near rally sites; police typically use force to disperse large and/or unauthorized gatherings. Strikes - especially those affecting public education and railway services - cannot be ruled out. However, significant violence or disruptions are unlikely.