02 Sep 2024 | 02:52 PM UTC
Arabian Peninsula: Continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through late September /update 13
Further attacks against vessels in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden likely through at least late September.
Further maritime incidents and associated disruptions are likely in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula through at least late September amid prevailing heightened tensions. Al-Houthi forces renewed threats on Aug. 25 to launch an attack against Israel in response to Israel’s attack on Yemen’s Port of Al-Hudaydah on July 20. Attacks will likely continue to target perceived Israeli or Israeli-linked ships and may also target Israeli ports through the use of long-range missiles or uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Al-Houthi attacks resumed in early August following a lull after the Port of Al-Hudaydah was targeted. Most attacks in August involved the Al-Houthis targeting individual ships in multiple attacks over several days. This could indicate a shift in Al-Houthi tactics to maximize damage and sink vessels.
The Al-Houthis attacked the Greek-flagged tanker Sounion in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on Aug. 21. Armed security aboard Sounion exchanged fire with those aboard two skiffs, which had approached the vessel. Approximately two hours following the exchange of fire, Sounion was struck by two projectiles, with two further projectiles impacting over the course of the next hour. Following the fourth impact, the crew reported sighting a small craft acting suspiciously in the vicinity. A warship from the EU’s EUNAVFOR ASPIDES mission responded and evacuated all the crew, destroying a Houthi uncrewed surface vessel (USV) enroute. Following these attacks, Sounion was reportedly on fire and drifting without command. The Al-Houthis were seen to have boarded Sounion and planted explosives on the vessel, possibly on Aug. 22. The attack on Sounion followed similar attacks on other vessels, also owned by the Greek company Delta Tankers, earlier in August. The likely reason for the attacks is due to the company doing business in Israel, with the tanker Delta Star calling at the country in July.
Sounion was carrying approximately 150,000 tonnes of crude oil at the time of the attack, posing a significant environmental and navigational hazard. The Al-Houthi group agreed on Aug. 27 to allow tugboats and rescue ships to reach Sounion and tow the vessel away from the affected area to prevent a significant oil spill. As of Sept. 2, efforts to remove Sounion are underway. These efforts could be disrupted by ongoing Al-Houthi attacks, as the group did not agree to a truce to allow the Sounion to be towed away. Attacks may hinder tugboats and rescue ships from reaching Sounion in a timeous manner, and the ship will continue to present a navigational and environmental hazard in the Red Sea.
US and UK airstrikes continued against Al-Houthi targets throughout August. The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln near the Arabian Peninsula on Aug. 21 to deter possible Iranian attacks against Israel. The USS Abraham Lincoln will complement the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which has been operating in and around the region since July 12 to lead the US response against the Al-Houthis.
Al-Houthi militants initially claimed that their attacks would target Israel-linked assets in solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip; this threat has since been expanded to include US and UK-linked vessels following airstrikes by these countries against Al-Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as vessels belonging to any shipping company doing business with Israel. Shipping vessels from other states participating in maritime protection operations in the Red Sea or deemed by the Al-Houthis to have aided the US and UK strikes may also be targeted. Iran, too, is suspected of targeting Israel-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea and has seized several tankers near its coast.
Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led expanded maritime protection force in and around the Red Sea, has been set up to provide additional security for shipping in the region. The EU also launched its own protective mission, Operation Aspides, in mid-February. US, UK, French, Italian, and German naval forces have destroyed several UAVs, missiles, speedboats, and USVs, as well as at least one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV).
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO, maintain a policy of reduced or suspended transits through the Red Sea as of early July, as have oil and gas producers BP, Shell, and QatarEnergy. Several smaller cargo and energy shipping companies are also limiting or suspending transits. Additional companies may also halt operations in the Red Sea in the near term.
Attacks are typically preceded by an entity claiming to be the Yemeni Navy hailing the vessel on Channel 16 VHF in an attempt to divert the vessel toward Yemen. Individuals may also attempt to board the vessel from skiffs or fast boats, and exchanges of fire with ships' armed security teams have been reported.
Exercise caution and reconfirm routes with maritime authorities if transiting or shipping freight near the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, or northern Arabian Sea. Companies should regularly review their ship security assessment and plan under the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS), particularly in piracy-prone areas. Companies are advised to maintain strict anti-piracy watches and report all pirate activity - including both actual and attempted attacks, as well as suspicious sightings - to local naval authorities.
The incidents in the Red Sea coincide with increased tensions in the region connected to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Iranian-backed groups throughout the region have pledged solidarity with Palestinians and carried out attacks against Israeli or US-linked targets since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in southern Israel and the subsequent Israeli response.
Yemen's Iran-backed Al-Houthi rebels have stated that they regard Israeli shipping as a legitimate target and that they would continue attacks until Israel's operations in Gaza come to an end. The Al-Houthis possess an extensive arsenal of anti-shipping weaponry, including naval mines, waterborne improvised explosive devices (WBIED), drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles. The group has previously attempted to seize vessels near Al-Hudaydah and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of suspicious approaches involving skiffs are relatively commonplace. US, Saudi, and Emirati naval vessels, as well as several civilian ships, have also been targeted during the nearly decade-long Yemeni Civil War. The Al-Houthis also possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and weaponized drones, some of which have the range to strike targets in Israel, and the group has claimed several attempted strikes on Israeli territory since Oct. 7.
Iran has struck Israel-linked shipping in the Arabian Sea multiple times in recent years. Typically, incidents involve the use of weaponized drones at long distances from shore and occur during periods of heightened tensions between the two countries, such as after alleged Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or at sea.
