30 Sep 2024 | 12:36 PM UTC
DRC: Clashes likely to continue in North Kivu Province through October /update 22
Further clashes are likely in North Kivu Province, DRC, through late October.
Armed clashes and military operations involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, international forces, and the M23 rebels will likely persist in the North Kivu Province through at least late October. Despite a ceasefire agreement brokered by Angola with the DRC and Rwanda on Aug. 4, clashes between the M23, FARDC, and other armed groups have been reported in recent weeks, including near Goma.
Since February, clashes and mortar attacks have targeted sites around Sake and Goma, leaving at least five South African soldiers who were part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) killed and dozens of others injured. Artillery shells falling around camps in and around Goma have also killed dozens of civilians, mostly refugees.
Roads to and from Goma and Sake are often blocked by rebels or have been disrupted due to clashes, leading to delays in the transport of goods. Clashes near Sake and Goma may significantly disrupt the supply of goods from the north, west, and south, leaving only the land border with Rwanda as the remaining road entry and exit point for the region.
Further clashes will likely concentrate in the Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories surrounding Goma and Sake. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Locals may stage protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces injured or killed.
Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Avoid all demonstrations. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
The M23 group claims to defend Tutsi interests and is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues, against a historical backdrop of ethnic tensions. Following several years of relative respite, the M23 rebel group remerged in late 2021. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions have increased between Rwanda and its neighbors, particularly with DRC. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda).
The situation has drawn growing international attention. In February, the US attributed the renewed clashes to M23 rebels supported by Rwanda and called for the departure of all Rwandan forces and their military equipment in eastern DRC, citing the threat to civilians, UN, and humanitarian actors, as well as commercial flights. The US also called on DRC to cease cooperation with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group. Multiple human rights organizations, the UN, the EU, and the US had previously denounced the alleged support provided by Rwanda to M23 rebels.
