Gulf of Tonkin: Typhoon Yagi tracking westward over the Gulf of Tonkin as of early Sept. 7 /update 8

Typhoon Yagi is tracking west-northwestward over northern Hainan Island near Haikou early Sept. 7 after making landfall near Wenchang in Hainan Province around 16:00 Sept. 6. As of 10:00 ICT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 252 km (157 miles) east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make another landfall as a typhoon over Quang Ninh Province in northeastern Vietnam the evening of Sept. 7. After landfall, Yagi is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward across northern Vietnam through late Sept. 8 before weakening further over far northern Laos and dissipating over southern Yunnan Province in China early Sept. 9. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 7, the China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy to torrential rain is likely across parts of western and southern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, southwestern Guizhou, Hainan, and southeastern Yunnan through Sept. 8. The heaviest rainfall of 25-40 cm (10-16 inches) is likely over southwestern Guangxi and southeastern Yunnan. Strong winds are forecast over coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan provinces. Orange rainstorm, blue severe convective weather, and orange and yellow waterlogging and landslide warnings are also in place over parts of far southern China.

The Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has warned of strong winds in coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa from early Sept. 7, becoming increasingly stronger as the storm nears landfall. Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are forecast across parts of northern Vietnam through at least Sept. 9, with rainfall totals of 10-35 cm (4-14 inches) expected and isolated higher amounts of over 50 cm (20 inches) possible. Strong wind gusts and tornadoes may accompany storms. Rough seas are likely over the coastal regions from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa provinces through early Sept. 7, with waves of up to 5 meters (16 feet) near the center of the storm. Coastal areas from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ninh provinces should be on guard against storm surges; the highest storm surge of up to 2 meters (6.5 feet) is forecast over Quang Ninh Province.

The Thai Meteorological Department has warned that Yagi will result in heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of the North and upper Northeast regions Sept. 7-8. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has warned that the remnants of Yagi will bring widespread thunderstorms and rain to Naypyitaw, Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, and Bago regions and Shan, Chin, Rakhine, Kayah, Kayin, and Mon states Sept. 8-12.

More than 400,000 people were evacuated across Hainan ahead of Yagi's approach. Guangdong province has upgraded its emergency response level to the highest for strong winds. Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) has suspended all flights 20:00 Sept. 5-23:59 Sept. 6. Dozens of flights have also been canceled at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport (ZUH) in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong International Airport (HKG), and Macau International Airport (MFM). Trains and ferries on Hainan Island suspended operations Sept. 5-7, including across the Qiongzhou Strait. Authorities in Hainan have suspended work and schools since Sept. 5. Many other schools across southern China are closed, and public transport is experiencing suspensions or reduced services across the region. Beaches and coastal tourist attractions across Hainan Island and Guangdong Province are closed. Officials have suspended ferry services connecting Macau to Hong Kong and Wanzai in Guangdong until further notice. The main bridge linking Hong Kong with Macau and Zhuhai in Guangdong was reopened the afternoon of Sept. 6. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) suspended trading Sept. 6. More than 830,000 households in Hainan Province are without power; as of late Sept. 6, power to 260,000 households had been restored.

Authorities have evacuated tens of thousands of people in northeastern Vietnam ahead of the storm's approach. Van Don (VDO), Cat Bi International (HPH), Noi Bai International (HAN), and Tho Xuan (THD) airports plan to suspend operations Sept. 7. More than 300 flights will be canceled due to the closures and disruptions are also possible at Vinh International Airport (VII), Dien Bien Airport (DIN), and Dong Hoi Airport (VDH). Authorities in Hai Phong have ordered all vessels to safely move to their anchorage locations by the afternoon of Sept. 6. Travel agencies in Vietnam have canceled tours in Ha Long and Lan Ha bays. Hanoi Railway Transport JSC has announced several train services will be suspended between Hanoi and Hai Phong Sept. 7-8.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.