Israel, Lebanon, PT: Risk of further conflict escalation increases after Beirut's health ministry says airstrikes kill at least 492 people Sept. 23 /update 4

The risk of a further and significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has increased after Lebanon's health ministry asserted that Israeli airstrikes killed at least 492 people and wounded more than 1,600 others in the country on Sept. 23. It was not immediately clear how many of those killed were LH militants. The casualty count will probably rise over the short term. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) asserted that their warplanes struck more than 1,300 LH targets in the airstrikes, destroying rockets, missiles, and drones. The airstrikes also displaced tens of thousands of Lebanese citizens, with many fleeing southern areas of the country following Israeli warnings to leave locations where the LH had concealed weaponry. Most of the airstrikes targeted locations in southern Lebanon to the south of Sidon, with several others reported in eastern and northern areas of the country. Notably, one airstrike targeted Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut, in an attempt to kill LH commander Ali Karaki. The LH asserted that Karaki survived the airstrike; Israeli military officials did not immediately confirm Karaki's medical status.

The LH, meanwhile, fired some 200 rockets toward Israel on Sept. 23, triggering sirens to sound in northern Israel, including near Haifa, and further south in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The rocket barrage caused some damage but no significant casualties. Amid a seemingly rising threat of more frequent and severe cross-border fire from the LH, the Israeli cabinet also declared a "special situation" across the country on Sept. 23, granting officials emergency authorization to impose various restrictions to ensure public safety.

The IDF will likely continue to carry out airstrikes targeting LH officials, militants, and materiel across Lebanon over the coming days. LH militants, for their part, will almost certainly continue their campaign of cross-border projectile and drone attacks targeting northern and central Israel; however, the LH may simultaneously attempt to calibrate their cross-border strikes to avert significant conflict escalation. Heightened security and disruptions to transport and business operations will probably affect areas subject to cross-border hostilities. The cross-border tensions and strikes have prompted some airlines to cancel flights to Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY), and additional strikes could lead to further flight disruptions, including in Lebanon and Israel, or even prompt temporary suspensions of flight operations at some airports. Cross-border strikes may also disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice in response to conflict developments.