27 Sep 2024 | 10:18 AM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Risk of further conflict escalation increases after Beirut's health ministry says airstrikes kill at least 700 people since Sept. 23 /update 5
Israeli airstrikes kill at least 700 people, injure more than 1,600 others in Lebanon since Sept. 23; risk of conflict escalation grows.
The risk of a further and significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has increased after Lebanon's health ministry asserted that Israeli airstrikes killed at least 700 people and injured more than 1,600 others in the country since Sept. 23. Several senior LH commanders have been killed since Sept. 23 and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) asserted that their warplanes struck more than 1,300 LH targets in the airstrikes, destroying rockets, missiles, and drones. The airstrikes also displaced tens of thousands of Lebanese citizens, with many fleeing southern areas of the country and creating traffic jams along major thoroughfares toward Beirut following Israeli warnings to leave locations where the LH had allegedly concealed weaponry. Most of the airstrikes targeted locations in southern Lebanon, to the south of Sidon, and the Baalbek-Hermel Governorate in the East. However, an increased number of strikes targeted central regions as well, including the Chouf district of Mount Lebanon and Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut. Several airstrikes also targeted the Syrian-Lebanese border on Sept. 26-27, killing at least five Syrian soldiers and wounding several others.
The LH, meanwhile, fired over 300 rockets toward Israel since Sept. 23, triggering sirens to sound in northern Israel, including near Haifa, in Tel Aviv, and occasionally further south in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The rocket barrage caused some damage but no significant casualties. Amid a seemingly rising threat of more frequent and severe cross-border fire from the LH, the Israeli cabinet also declared a "special situation" across the country on Sept. 23, granting officials emergency authorization to impose various restrictions to ensure public safety.
The IDF will likely continue to carry out airstrikes targeting LH officials, militants, and materiel across Lebanon over the coming days. LH militants will almost certainly continue their campaign of cross-border projectile and drone attacks targeting northern and central Israel. Heightened security and disruptions to transport and business operations will probably affect areas subject to cross-border hostilities. While Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) remains operational, cross-border tensions and strikes have prompted some airlines to cancel flights to BEY. Additional strikes could lead to further flight disruptions, including in Lebanon and Israel, or even prompt temporary suspensions of flight operations at some regional airports. High demand for outbound flights from BEY cannot be ruled out. Cross-border strikes may also disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice in response to conflict developments.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Lebanon and Israel, particularly the shared border region, until the situation stabilizes. Consider departing Lebanon via commercial means while these are available; note that commercial options to depart Lebanon may become increasingly limited if the security situation deteriorates further. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
The IDF's Sept. 23 strikes in Lebanon are the deadliest single-day barrage on the country since it waged war with the LH in 2006. It came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the "balance of power" vis-a-vis the Lebanon-based militant group through preemptive strikes on perceived LH targets. Israel seeks to push LH militants back from the Israeli-Lebanese border and degrade the group's ability to launch additional strikes toward Israel so as to permit the return of some 60,000 Israeli citizens displaced from the north of the country by cross-border fighting that erupted after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. The LH has asserted that it would continue to conduct attacks targeting Israel until a ceasefire halts the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
