Mexico: Tropical Depression Ileana tracking west-northwestward off the northern coast of Sinaloa State early Sept. 15 /update 5

Tropical Storm Ileana is tracking west-northwestward off the northern coast of Sinaloa State early Sept. 15, following landfall southeast of Topolobampo Town, Sinaloa State, during the afternoon Sept. 14 and having skirted the southeastern tip of the Baja California Peninsula late Sept. 13. As of 02:00 MST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 45 km (30 miles) southwest of Los Mochis, Sinaloa State.

Forecast models indicate that Ileana will transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northwestward off the coast of northern Sinaloa State during the morning Sept. 15. The remnant low is expected to move north-northwestward into the central Gulf of California and dissipate late Sept. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of early Sept. 15, authorities have discontinued all coastal warnings associated with the storm. Further adverse weather is likely across the affected region through Sept. 15. Gusty winds are possible along the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora early Sept. 15. Forecast models indicate the system will produce additional rainfall of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) over parts of northwestern Sinaloa State through Sept. 15. Swells generated by the system will subside across portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur Sept. 15.

Severe weather associated with the storm system is causing disruptions in parts of northwestern Sinaloa State as of early Sept. 15. Flooding, minor damage, and power outages have been reported in affected areas and emergency services have rescued several families from low-lying areas. Authorities have established dozens of emergency shelters in Ahome, Guasave, Salvador Alvarado, and Angostura municipalities for those unable to shelter at home during the storm. Flights have been affected by the storm at Los Mochis International Airport (LMM) Sept. 14-15. Comprehensive damage assessments may not be able to be conducted until conditions have improved and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is confirmed.

Some minor flooding and flight cancelations have been reported in southern parts of Baja California Sur State after the storm passed through the region Sept. 13-14. Schools were closed in Cabo San Lucas and La Paz in Baja California Sur State Sept. 13 ahead of the approach of the storm. Authorities advised residents to avoid leaving their homes until the storm passes and to find temporary shelters if they are in an area at risk of flooding; dozens of shelters have been opened across the region for those unable to shelter at home. El Alto International Airport (LPB) in La Paz and Los Cabos International Airport (SJD) both remained operational during the passing of the storm; however, some flights due to arrive at the airports were canceled Sept. 13-14. Operations are generally beginning to return to normal in Baja California Sur Sept. 15.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.