Mexico: Tropical Storm John tracking northwestward over Guerrero State Sept. 24 /update 2

Tropical Storm John is tracking northwestward over Guerrero State, Mexico, Sept. 24, having made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane south-southwest of Marquelia late Sept. 23. As of 09:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 110 km (70 miles) northwest of Acapulco, Guerrero State.

Forecast models indicate that John will weaken to a tropical depression as it tracks westward Sept. 24 and will then remain a depression as it stalls over the region over the coming days, turning to track southward late Sept. 24, then southwestward off the coast of Guerrero Sept. 25, and then northward back inland late Sept. 25-26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Sept. 24, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical storm warning: Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the warning area and will likely continue over the coming hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger and could be even greater in elevated areas.

Forecast models indicate the system will produce rainfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) with localized higher amounts of up to 38 cm (15 inches) across coastal areas of Chiapas State, and totals of 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) with localized higher amounts up to 76 cm (30 inches) in areas along and near the coast of Oaxaca State to southeast Guerrero through Sept. 26.

Swells from the system will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico over the coming days. The swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities have reported at least two fatalities in Guerrero State after a landslide struck a home in the municipality of Tlacoachistlahuaca. The storm has caused flooding and downed trees and powerlines across parts of Guerrero and power and communication outages are ongoing in several municipalities. Several roads in Oaxaca State have been blocked by flooding and landslides and power outages are ongoing in the communities of El Tamal and Motillas in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional. Flights have been suspended at Puerto Escondido International Airport (PXM) and Huatulco International Airport (HUX) due to the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.