Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions are likely nationwide through at least late October /update 53

Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain likely through at least late October. Renewed fighting has erupted in several cities, including Khartoum, Omdurman, Al-Fashir (North Darfur), and Sennar City. US- and Saudi-mediated talks held in Geneva, Switzerland, in August, were not attended by the SAF; their collapse is the third instance that negotiations between parties have failed. Instead, belligerents have increased their use of drones and aerial bombing, resulting in numerous civilian casualties. The latest such incident includes the shelling of an internally displaced people (IDP) camp near El Fasher on Aug. 26. Since the start of the conflict, fighting has left more than 20,000 people dead and many thousands of others wounded. The conflict has displaced approximately 11 million people, both within Sudan and across its borders. Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred nationwide. Moreover, food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are limited, including in Khartoum.

Travel disruptions
Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several locations across the nation's capital, including in the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport (KRT). Sudan's eastern region airspace is open. However, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice, and on Sept. 3, Sudan also closed the Gallabat border crossing with Ethiopia following fighting in the Ethiopian Amhara region. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are almost certainly under heightened surveillance.

Khartoum
Authorities have ordered all foreign nationals to leave Khartoum State due to reports of foreign fighters among RSF. While the order was likely issued out of an abundance of caution, the Sudanese Director of the Foreigners and Immigration Control Department, Colonel Nizar Khalil, in consultation with the Khartoum State Security Coordination Committee, announced that the measure was to ensure the safety of foreign nationals amid ongoing domestic security challenges.

Large areas of Khartoum remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum North, part of Omdurman, and some of the Nile bridges. The SAF reportedly targets RSF positions with occasional airstrikes. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations. Fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine. Authorities have also imposed an indefinite curfew on pedestrian and vehicular movement between the hours of 23:00-5:00, with all commercial activities also being banned nightly during the same time frame.

Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted aid workers and their facilities, as well as other civilians.

Other Areas
Clashes have occurred nationwide, including in Sennar, South Kordofan, White Nile, and Al Gezira states. Rising intercommunal violence has also contributed to the deterioration of the security situation in Darfur. On Sept. 24, Nyala airport (UYL), located in RSF-controlled territory with the potential to be used to deliver humanitarian aid, was bombed, reportedly damaging the runway. On June 29, the RSF captured Singa, the capital of Sennar State, bringing the conflict to Gedaref and Blue Nile States as well as the Ethiopian border. Still, heavy fighting between rival tribes has been reported in several locations, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces have been involved in these clashes. While the status of the previously active states of emergency in Al-Gadarif, South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Red Sea states is not immediately clear, authorities in Al-Gezira are enforcing a dusk-to-dawn curfew until further notice.

Security forces on both sides will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport hubs. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews. Amid the ongoing armed conflict, increased security measures are certain in Khartoum State. Authorities could impose further enhanced security measures on foreign nationals abroad