23 Oct 2024 | 05:05 AM UTC
Bangladesh: Protests to continue prompting disruptions and sporadic violence nationwide through at least early November /update 27
Further disruptive rallies likely in Bangladesh through at least early November. Increased security likely; additional violence possible.
Further rallies and related disruptions are likely nationwide through at least early November as the interim government works to stabilize the country following the ousting of long-time Prime Minister and Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh Hasina. Fresh nationwide student protests are occurring as of Oct. 23, demanding the resignation of President Mohammed Shahabuddin over a recent statement that he has not received any formal resignation from Hasina. Clashes and police use of sound grenades and live ammunition have affected the main protest site near the presidential residence of Bangabhaban in Dhaka. Additional altercations are likely in the coming days. Business operations, ground transport, and flight services remain vulnerable to disruptions at short notice in case of significant violence.
Civil Unrest
Unionized garment and other manufacturing workers continue to hold work stoppages and disruptive multi-day sit-ins along arterial roads, causing intermittent factory closures and traffic disruptions, mainly in Dhaka Division. Student organizations also regularly hold marches and road blockades over several demands such as improvements in administration, investigations into the former government, action against alleged repression of student activists, a ban on AL-related student unions, job reservation criteria, as well as constitutional amendments. The AL party will probably hold sporadic rallies to demand that Hasina return office; several AL leaders and family members have reportedly been killed in violent incidents. Minority groups, including Hindus, have staged demonstrations following targeted attacks at various residences, businesses, and places of worship.
Future demonstrations will likely attract large crowds, especially near transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. Sporadic security incidents, such as arson, looting, and vandalism, continue to target cultural sites, media offices, government buildings, and Awami League offices and leaders' residences. Political tensions will likely intensify if attempts are made to hold fresh elections.
Security Measures
On Sept. 17, the interim government granted commissioned officers in the Bangladesh Army executive magistrate powers for 60 days. Under the Criminal Procedural Code (CrPC) of 1898, the move empowers the officers with expanded authority to detain suspects, issue arrest warrants, search for evidence, rescue individuals from illegal detention, disperse illegal gatherings, enforce arrest warrants beyond their usual jurisdictions, and take other actions to maintain public order.
Heightened counter-terror and anti-crime vigilance is likely following the escape of inmates from multiple prisons in recent months. Over 900 prisoners, including individuals convicted under terror charges, remain at large. As a precaution, increased security measures, including cordons and traffic restrictions, are likely at government, state-funded, and security installations. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points to major cities and air and sea ports. Indian authorities are also imposing intensive security along the land border with Bangladesh due to concerns about spillover violence and illegal passage.
Avoid all demonstrations due to possible violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Heed all official instructions, including curfew orders, security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Nationwide demonstrations have recently decreased, and operational disruptions are likely to ease as the interim government stabilizes amid ongoing political uncertainty. Protests, initially led by university students against a controversial job quota system favoring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans, peaked when Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled after her residence was stormed. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has since been established, with military officials in talks with student leaders about the transition.
The tenure of Bangladesh's interim government remains unclear, with some political groups advocating for elections within three months following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Meanwhile, some sources indicate the next election is constitutionally mandated to occur by Jan. 8, 2029, and discussions are ongoing about democratic reforms that the interim government may implement before the next elections.
