18 Oct 2024 | 11:55 PM UTC
Caribbean Sea: Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 tracking west-northwestward across far western Caribbean Sea late Oct. 18
PTC 15 tracking west-northwest across western Caribbean Sea late Oct. 18. Landfall likely over Belize District, Belize, afternoon Oct. 19.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 has formed in the far western Caribbean Sea and is tracking west-northwestward towards Belize during the evening of Oct. 18. As of 16:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 340 km (210 miles) east of Belize City, Belize.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will turn to track westward and strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall over the southern Belize District in Belize, south of Belize City, the afternoon of Oct. 19. The system is likely to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks westward across northern Cayo District then across northern Peten Department in Guatemala before dissipating over the far northwestern part of Peten Department early Oct. 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.
As of the evening of Oct. 18, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Watch
Belize City in Belize to Tulum Municipality in Mexico
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Oct. 19. Widespread rainfall totaling 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is forecast across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz states in southern Mexico. Isolated rainfall of more than 30 cm (12 inches) is also possible through late Oct. 22. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center of the storm moves inland.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
