Pakistan: Periods of air pollution to disrupt transport across most of the country through March

Periods of severe air pollution routinely affect transport services across Pakistan during winter and the fire season through March 30. Flight delays, diversions, and cancellations can occur, especially during early morning hours. Fog can also disrupt rail service and other ground transportation. Smog, a combination of smoke and fog, is typically worst in November-mid-December, but periodic smog is likely through March.

Air pollution levels often spike in urban centers during winter and the fire season. Farmers burn their fields to clear the land for the coming crop cycle, releasing pollutants into the air. Forest fires can also occur naturally due to dry conditions and flammable vegetation. Cold air and calm winds during winter often trap pollution near the surface, which has the highest impact on health and can cause travel disruptions.

The intensity and duration of the smoggy period have been increasing annually due to vehicle-produced pollution, among other factors. Conditions are classified as "severe" when PM 2.5 air pollution (airborne particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 microns or less, small enough to penetrate the lungs deeply) exceeds 250. Local authorities may issue health warnings in the affected areas during periods of severe air pollution and could impose vehicular and commercial restrictions. Officials could ban construction projects, school closures, telecommuting arrangements, and vehicular restrictions. Officials could also suspend all outdoor construction projects during periods of severe air pollution and force some factories to cease operations. Such closures typically do not lead to severe supply chain disruptions but may delay some time-sensitive orders and deliveries. Schools often remain closed when air quality deteriorates; higher employee absenteeism is also probable.

Diminished air quality will likely prompt regional transport and business disruptions over the coming days and weeks. Although there have been no reports of major operational disruptions arising from reduced visibility in recent days, flight delays are probable at airports in the region, such as Allama Iqbal International Airport (LHE) in Lahore and Jinnah International Airport (KHI) in Karachi, especially during overnight and early morning hours.

Due to inadequate visibility, highways and secondary roads will likely experience traffic disruptions. Officials may also close schools, suspend industrial activity in some areas, and restrict truck and private vehicle usage in urban centers. Temporary measures to reduce air pollution will likely prompt minor supply chain and business disruptions.