Taiwan: Typhoon Kong-rey tracking over Taiwan following landfall Oct. 31 /update 7

Typhoon Kong-rey (known in the Philippines as Leon) is tracking across Taiwan Oct. 31, having made landfall over Taitung County's Chenggong Township at around 13:40 CST. As of 14:00, the system's center of circulation was approximately 215 km (136 miles) south of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken after landfall but remain a typhoon as it tracks north-northwestward across Taiwan Oct. 31, before entering the Taiwan Strait late Oct. 31-early Nov. 1. Kong-rey is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to tracks north-northeastward off the coast of Fujian and then Zhejiang provinces in China Nov. 1, before turning to track northeastward across the East China Sea late Nov. 1-Nov. 2. The system is forecast to weaken slightly before making another landfall over Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, during the afternoon Nov. 2 and then tracking east-northeastward across southern Kyushu Island and exiting back into the Phillippine Sea late Nov. 2. The storm is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward off the southern coast of Honshu Island Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Warnings

As of Oct. 31, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued a sea and land typhoon warning across all of Taiwan. Purple extremely torrential rain advisories (the highest level on a four-tier scale) have been issued across Hualien and Taitung counties and mountainous parts of Nsinchu, Nantou, Taichung, and Yilan counties. Red torrential rain advisories have been issued across the rest of Yilan County, Keelung North Coast, Taipei City, and New Taipei City. Orange and yellow advisories are in place across much of the rest of Taiwan. Strong wind advisories are in place across all coastal and some inland areas of Taiwan. Short-term thunderstorm, flash flood, and hurricane-force wind warnings have been issued across parts of eastern and southern Taiwan, and further warnings are likely over the coming hours.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern regions, rough seas to coastal waters, and possible storm surge in coastal areas. The following wind warnings are in place:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Batanes

• TCWS 2: Babuyan Islands

• TCWS 1: Mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, northern Benguet, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur

PAGASA has issued a separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall associated with the passing of Kong-rey. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected across Batanes and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Calamian Islands Oct. 31- Nov. 1.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued an orange typhoon warning (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) warning of strong winds and rough seas in coastal areas and heavy rainfall over northeastern Fujian, central and eastern Zhejiang, Shanghai, and southern Jiangsu provinces. Rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are forecast over parts of northeastern Fujian and eastern Zhejiang Oct. 31-Nov. 1. A separate yellow rainstorm warning has been issued over the affected areas of eastern and southeastern China, as well as orange and yellow flood and landslide warnings over parts of the affected area.

Ongoing Disruptions

Heavy rainfall and strong winds are causing flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions across parts of Taiwan as of Oct. 31. Authorities have reported at least 27 people injured and two others missing. Several roads are blocked due to flooding and landslides, particularly in eastern areas of the country, and flooding washed away a bridge in Hualien County's Fuli Township. Around 153,000 households have been affected by power outages across parts of Taiwan as of the early afternoon Oct. 31.

Authorities have evacuated around 8,600 people across New Taipei, Tainan, and Kaohsiung cities and Hsinchu, Nantou, Pingtung, Yilan, Hualien and Taitung counties ahead of the storm's approach. Schools and offices are closed across all cities and counties Oct. 31. Financial markets are also closed. A total of 241 passenger and cargo flights have been canceled at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TPE) as of early Oct. 31. UNI Air (B7) and Mandarin Airlines (AE) canceled all domestic flights Oct. 31. Hong Kong Express Airways (UO) canceled 18 flights connecting Hong Kong with major Taiwanese cities, including Taipei, Kaohsiung, and Taichung Oct. 31. China Airlines (CI), Tigerair Taiwan (IT), Singapore Airlines (SQ), and Starlux Airlines (JX) issued notices of delays, rescheduling or cancelations of international flights to and from Taiwan. The Taiwan Railway Corp. canceled all express trains on its Western Trunk Line, Eastern Trunk Line, South-Link Line, and attached branches due to the typhoon. The Taoyuan Metro Corp. also announced that all express and extended service trains on the Taoyuan Airport MRT will be canceled Oct. 31 and the Taipei Metro announced the suspension of its services on elevated rail sections beginning from 11:00 Oct. 31 due to strong winds from Typhoon Kong-rey. Commuter trains between Keelung and Changhua County have been suspended from 12:00 Oct. 31 and many other rail services across Taiwan are operating on reduced schedules. Most ferry services across Taiwan have been suspended and some national parks are closed. In Taipei City, motor vehicles are only allowed to exit but not enter evacuation gates and embankment ramps in riverside areas citywide. Riverside evacuation gates are also closed. In New Taipei City, traffic in riverside areas is limited to exiting vehicles while evacuation gates are closed.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami. The storm system made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24 before tracking westward across northern Luzon. Heavy rainfall and strong winds associated with Trami have caused damage and widespread flooding, affecting almost seven million people. The death toll has risen to 145, including at least 55 fatalities in Batangas Province. At least 21 other people remain missing. The casualty count is likely to be further adjusted in the coming days. More than 760,000 people remain evacuated. Further severe weather is likely to exacerbate the situation and hamper recovery efforts.

The national government has directed local government units (LGUs) to carry out forced and mandatory evacuations of residents in areas identified as high risk in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, and Cordillera Administrative regions; authorities advised communities exposed to flooding and landslides to remain vigilant and evacuate to designated shelters. More than 2,000 residents were evacuated from isolated barangays in Agoncillo Municipality, Batangas Province. Officials suspended sea travel in Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces. Authorities have also prohibited all types of water activities and sailing in Albay Province. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of Luzon and the Central Visayas Region.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.