Caribbean Sea: Tropical Depression 19 tracking westward toward northern Honduras Nov. 14 /update 1

Tropical Depression 19 is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea toward northern Honduras Nov. 14. As of 10:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 100 km (65 miles) northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a tropical storm, upon which it will be named Tropical Storm Sara, as it continues to track westward toward northern Honduras Nov. 14 before making landfall over Gracias a Dios Department late Nov. 14-early Nov. 15. The storm will maintain its strength as it skirts slowly along the coast of northern Honduras Nov. 15-16. The system is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward away from Honduras late Nov. 16 through Nov. 17, passing through the Bay Islands early Nov. 17. The storm is expected to make another landfall over Belize south of Belize City during the evening Nov. 17, before weakening into a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward across Belize and far northern Guatemala and into Campeche State, Mexico, early Nov. 18. The system is forecast to remain a depression as it tracks north-northwestward across Campeche State and into the eastern Bay of Campeche through early Nov. 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Nov. 14, authorities have issued the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

Tropical Storm Watch

• The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras has issued yellow alerts for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, and Gracias a Dios departments and green alerts for Cortes, Olancho, and Yoro departments due to the storm as of Nov. 14.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later Nov. 14. Rainfall totals of up to 25-50 cm (10-20 inches), with maximum amounts of 76 cm (30 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through at least Nov. 19. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 19. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.