Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Sara tracking westward toward northern Honduras late Nov. 14 /update 2

Tropical Storm Sara is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea near northern Honduras late Nov. 14. As of 19:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 140 km (85 miles) northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen slightly as it continues to track westward and skirt slowly along the coast of northern Honduras through early Nov. 17. The system will likely turn west-northwestward and then northwestward away from Honduras the afternoon of Nov. 16 and make landfall over Stann Creek District in Belize during the afternoon of Nov. 17. Sara is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward across Belize and far northern Guatemala, into Campeche State, Mexico, and exit into the eastern Bay of Campeche through the afternoon of Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Nov. 14, authorities have issued the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

Tropical Storm Watch

• The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras has issued red alerts for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, and Gracias a Dios departments due to the storm as of late Nov. 14.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras over the coming days, while tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua late Nov. 14. Rainfall totals of up to 25-50 cm (10-20 inches), with maximum amounts of 76 cm (30 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through at least Nov. 19. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and Quintana Roo State in Mexico, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 19. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.