Honduras: Tropical Storm Sara tracking westward along the coast of northern Honduras early Nov. 15 /update 3

Tropical Storm Sara is tracking westward just off the coast of Colon Department in northern Honduras early Nov. 15, having made landfall near Brus Laguna in Gracias a Dios Department late Nov. 14 and skirted along the northern coast of Honduras. As of 06:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 60 km (40 miles) southeast of Isla Gunaja, Bay Islands Department, Honduras.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it continues to track generally westward along the coast of Colon Nov. 15, passing briefly over land near Puerto Castilla around noon. The system will likely strengthen slightly as it turns northwestward away from the north coast of mainland Honduras the early Nov. 16 and passes through the Bay Islands during the late morning and early afternoon. Sara is expected to continue to track northwestward and make another landfall over Stann Creek District in Belize during the morning of Nov. 17. Sara is forecast to weaken as it tracks inland over Belize Nov. 17 before weakening into a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over far northeastern Guatemala and into southeastern Campeche State, Mexico, late Nov. 17-early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of early Nov. 15, authorities are maintaining the following warnings and watches:

Tropical Storm Warning

• The entire northern coast of Honduras

• The Bay Islands of Honduras

• The northern coast of Guatemala from the Honduras/Guatemala border westward to Puerto Barrios

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras and Guatemala over the coming days. Rainfall totals of up to 25-50 cm (10-20 inches), with maximum amounts of 76 cm (30 inches), are likely over portions of northern Honduras through at least Nov. 19. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and Quintana Roo State in Mexico, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rain with localized totals of around 38 cm (15 inches) are forecast through Nov. 19. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of landslides.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras and Guatemala. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

The Secretariat of State for National Risk and Contingency Management Offices (COPECO) in Honduras has issued red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Atlantida, Bay Islands, Colon, and Gracias a Dios departments due to the storm as of early Nov. 15. Yellow alerts are in place for Cortes, Olancho, and Yoro departments and a green alert is in place for Santa Barbara Department. Authorities have established emergency shelters and banned maritime navigation in the Bay Islands. Schools have been closed across parts of the affected area, including Atlantida, Colon, and the Bay Islands.

As of early Nov. 15, three people have been reported missing across parts of northern Honduras amid the severe weather associated with Sara. At least nine communities in Colon Department have been cut off and flooding and damage have been reported in the city of La Ceiba in Atlantida Department due to heavy rainfall. Flooded roads have been reported on Roatan Island in the Bay Islands and flooding has also been reported in parts of Gracias a Dios and Yoro departments. At least 74 people have been evacuated in Santa Rosa de Aguan municipality in Colon Department.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible in hard-hit regions.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.