Philippines: Typhoon Toraji tracking west-northwestward across Luzon Nov. 11 /update 3

Typhoon Toraji (known in the Philippines as Nika) is tracking west-northwestward over Ifugao province in central Luzon Nov. 11, having made landfall near Dilasag in Aurora province during the morning. As of 14:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 256 km (159 miles) north of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will track northwestward over western Luzon in the coming hours before exiting into the South China Sea during the early evening Nov. 11. The system is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the South China Sea toward far southern China Nov. 12-early Nov. 14, before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating as it turns to track south-southwestward and then southwestward to the east of Hainan Island, China, Nov. 14-16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 11, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to eastern, northern, and north-central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Northernmost Aurora, central and southern Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province, northern Ifugao, central and southern Abra, and northern and central Ilocos Sur.

• TCWS 3: Central Aurora, northern Quirino, northeastern Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Isabela, southwestern Cagayan, southern Apayao, the rest of Abra, the rest of Ifugao, northern Benguet, southern Ilocos Norte, and the rest of Ilocos Sur.

• TCWS 2: Eastern and northwestern Cagayan, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, central Aurora, and northern Nueva Ecija.

• TCWS 1: Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, northern and central Zambales, northern Metro Manila, northern Rizal, and northeastern portions of Quezon including the Pollilo Islands.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Aurora, Cagayan, Isabela, Abra, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, and Apayao provinces as well as 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union provinces Nov. 11-12. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Pangasinan provinces Nov. 11-12. There is also a moderate-to-high risk storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, and Aurora. Estimated storm surge heights of 2.1-3 meters (7-10 feet) are forecast in parts of La Union, Pangasinan, and Zambales provinces and 1-2 meters (3-7 feet) in other affected areas.

Authorities evacuated around 7,000 people from exposed coastal and flood- and landslide-prone areas of Aurora and Isabela provinces around where the storm made landfall. Officials in Albay Province have evacuated more than 1,200 people in Libon town due to anticipated heavy rainfall in the area. Authorities have also evacuated residents across 2,500 villages in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera provinces, as well as some residents in parts of Camarines Sur Province. All flights have been canceled at Tuguegarao Airport (TUG) in Cagayan Province and flights between Laoag International Airport (LAO and Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) in Manila have been canceled Nov. 11. At least 14 seaports across Calabarzon Region are non-operational due to rough seas, and hundreds of passengers are stranded across ports in affected areas as of Nov. 11 due to the suspension of sea travel. Schools have canceled classes in dozens of locations across most of Luzon. At least seven towns in Cagayan Province remain without power.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, and most recently Typhoon Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines), which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across parts of the region. More than 640,000 people remain evacuated following damage caused by the storms, with the worst affected Cagayan Province. Further severe weather associated with Toraji (Nika) will likely lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.