Spain: Severe weather forecast to continue across eastern and southern regions through at least Nov. 16 /update 2

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of eastern and southern Spain through at least Nov. 16. The State Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia, AEMET) has issued an updated special weather phenomenon advisory warning that a weather system will continue to bring unstable weather across the affected area over the coming days, with the heaviest rainfall likely in southwestern regions Nov. 14-15 and eastern regions Nov. 14. The system is expected to gradually lose intensity through Nov. 16. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Flooding and associated disruptions are ongoing in Malaga Province and surrounding areas following heavy rainfall Nov. 12-13. Authorities ordered the preventative evacuation of around 3,000 residents along the banks of the Guadalhorce River, including Alora, Cartama, Alhaurin de la Torre, Pizarra, Cerralba, and Malaga. Schools across Granada and Malaga cities are closed and several roads in the region have been made impassable due to floodwaters and debris. All trains across Malaga Province, including high-speed services to Madrid, were suspended on Nov. 13; high-speed services have resumed as of Nov. 14, but services on most commuter lines remain suspended. Schools were also closed in parts of Valencia and Catalonia autonomous communities, and trains were canceled between Valencia and Barcelona due to severe weather on Nov. 13. Parts of Valencia Autonomous Community are still recovering from severe flooding that impacted the region in late October and caused over 200 fatalities; additional downpours will likely hamper ongoing recovery efforts.

AEMET issued the following weather warnings across the affected area on Nov. 14:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Across parts of western Andalusia Autonomous Community.

• Yellow heavy rainfall and warnings: Parts of eastern, northwestern, and west-central Andalusia, southern Castile and Leon, southeastern and western Castile-La Mancha, eastern, northern, and southern Extremadura, northwestern Murcia, and central Valencia autonomous communities.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Across parts of western Andalusia Autonomous Community.

• Yellow coastal warnings: Parts of the southeastern coast of Andalusia Autonomous Community.

Further yellow heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings are in place for parts of western Andalusia, southern Castile and Leon, and northern Extremadura autonomous communities on Nov. 15, and yellow coastal warnings are in place along parts of the Andalusia coast on Nov. 15-16. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Where significant flooding, landslides, or strong winds impact utility networks, disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. The disruptive weather may cause further delays and cancellations at airports in the affected regions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Localized business disruptions are possible in areas impacted by severe weather; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.