30 Nov 2024 | 08:36 PM UTC
Syria: Additional armed clashes likely in parts of country through December as insurgents capture Idlib Governorate and most of Aleppo Nov. 30
Further violence likely in Syria through December as rebels claim control of several areas; severe transport, business disruptions likely.
The security situation in Syria is likely to remain highly volatile through at least late December following insurgents' capture of most of Aleppo on Nov. 30 and amid ongoing clashes in Idlib and Hama governorates. Hundreds of rebel combatants, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and government-aligned military personnel have been killed in the latest round of fighting that began on Nov. 27. The insurgents have reportedly claimed full control of Idlib Governorate and taken control of several locations in Hama Governorate. The Syrian government has withdrawn its forces from Aleppo but has vowed to launch a counteroffensive to reclaim the city.
These clashes between rebels and Syrian government forces have occurred against the backdrop of regular Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Shi'a militias in Syria. On Nov. 30, Israeli military aircraft struck weapons smuggling sites belonging to Lebanese Hizballah (LH) along the Syrian-Lebanese border. The Israeli military is likely to continue such operations in the coming days and weeks.
Meanwhile, the HTS' military success in Aleppo and Idlib may inspire further pockets of resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation worsens, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Arab tribes in northeastern Syria may also intensify.
The Islamic State (IS), one of the most potent militant groups in Syria, will likely increase its attacks on Syrian government forces, foreigners, and civilians. The incidence of criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will likely rise amid the deterioration of the security environment.
The renewed conflict between HTS and Syrian government forces will almost certainly cause severe disruptions to transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in Aleppo and Hama will likely suspend operations as fighting persists. Traffic on major highways will also almost certainly be disrupted as the insurgents have reportedly cut off the M5 highway, which connects Damascus and Aleppo, and gained control of the strategic M4-M5 junction, which links Aleppo to Latakia on the Mediterranean coast.
Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), meaning "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant," is a Sunni insurgent group that emerged in January 2017 through a merger of multiple militant and rebel factions. HTS' predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, was an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization formed in 2012 with the goal of overthrowing the Syrian government following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. The UN, EU, and several countries, including the US and UK, have designated HTS as a terrorist organization.
HTS' latest offensive occurs against the backdrop of the Israel-LH conflict and escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. The group likely saw the new geopolitical landscape as advantageous for its offensive, capitalizing on the preoccupation of the LH militants in Lebanon. The Syrian government will almost certainly face intense opposition and fierce fighting as it attempts to regain control of Aleppo and other areas in northwestern Syria.
