Israel, Lebanon: Heightened security likely as ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah effective until end of January /update 3

Increased security is likely to persist in southern Lebanon and Northern Israel following the implementation of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) at 04:00 Nov. 27. The agreement, brokered by the US and France, stipulates a 60-day truce, expected to expire on Jan. 25, during which Israeli forces are to gradually withdraw from Lebanon, LH fighters are to move north of the Litani River, and Lebanese military forces and UN peacekeepers are to boost their presence in southern Lebanon to the south of the Litani River. A US-led international body will monitor the parties' compliance with the agreement, which US President Joe Biden said was "designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Since Nov. 27, several cross-border attacks have been reported. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim that, in the first month of the agreement, LH fighters violated the agreement on 120 occasions, leading to 40 militants killed. Israel also stated that it did not trust the Lebanese military's ability to secure and fully gain control of the border region. Meanwhile, the IDF has continued to strike southern Lebanon and the northeastern region of the Bekaa while pursuing its incursion in southern Lebanon, reaching territories north of the UN blue line marking the border between Israel and Lebanon. These incursions led to several armed clashes, resulting in the death of at least 32 people, according to Lebanese authorities. France and the US have called on all sides to respect the ceasefire, expressing concern that the fragile truce could unravel.

Heightened security measures will likely remain in place in northern Israel and much of Lebanon over the coming weeks. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose further emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice. Additional cross-border strikes targeting northern Israel and southern and northeastern Lebanon cannot be ruled out. A broader escalation in hostilities remains possible despite the ceasefire. Cross-border attacks may disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas.