Israel, Lebanon: Increased security likely after ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah took effect at 04:00 Nov. 27 /update 2

Increased security is likely to persist in southern Lebanon and Northern Israel following the implementation of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) at 04:00 Nov. 27. The agreement, brokered by the US and France, stipulates a 60-day truce during which Israeli forces are to gradually withdraw from Lebanon, LH fighters are to move north of the Litani River, and Lebanese military forces and UN peacekeepers are to boost their presence in southern Lebanon to the south of the Litani River. A US-led international body will monitor the parties' compliance with the agreement, which US President Joe Biden said was "designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Since Nov. 27, several cross-border attacks have been reported. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stationed in southern Lebanon have exchanged fire with alleged LH operatives moving back into south Lebanon, which Israel claims violated the ceasefire. The IDF also conducted several airstrikes in recent days against LH militants in southern Lebanon but also north of the Litani River. On Dec. 2, an IDF airstrike in southern Lebanon killed at least 11 people, including a Lebanese soldier, and injured several others. This was the deadliest cross-border attack since the ceasefire was enacted. It came after LH claimed for the first time since Nov. 27 an attack on IDF positions in Kfar Shouba, in the disputed territory of Shebaa Farms, at the border between Israel and Lebanon. No damage or casualties were reported following the attack.

Both Israel and LH claim the opposite side is violating the ceasefire agreement while their attacks are "defensive warning strikes." On Dec. 2, Lebanese speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, an LH ally who negotiated the truce on behalf of Lebanon, said at least 54 ceasefire violations perpetrated by Israel had been recorded since Nov. 27. Israel claims that it is targeting LH members attempting to move weapons south of the Litani River, in defiance of the agreement. On Dec. 1, the IDF Arabic spokesperson warned residents of most southern Lebanon localities against returning to their homes. France and the US have called on all sides to respect the ceasefire, expressing concern that the fragile truce could unravel.

Heightened security measures will likely remain in place in northern Israel and much of Lebanon over the coming days. Authorities in Israel or Lebanon may impose further emergency measures, including movement restrictions or shelter-in-place orders, on short notice. Additional cross-border strikes targeting northern Israel and southern Lebanon cannot be ruled out. A broader escalation in hostilities remains possible despite the ceasefire. Cross-border attacks may disrupt the functioning of utilities and telecommunications networks in some areas.