11 Dec 2024 | 07:38 PM UTC
Mozambique: Opposition leader likely to announce new disruptive protests nationwide through at least early January /update 14
Further opposition protests, tight security, violence likely in Mozambique through at least early January amid contested election results.
Increased security, disruptions, and violence are likely through at least early January as opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane is expected to call for additional nationwide protests. Mondlane reportedly plans to announce his next series of demonstrations on Dec. 16; until then, he has called for the free opening of all tolls and the non-payment of taxes through Jan. 15, 2025, when he says he plans on taking office. The latest series of protests Dec. 4-11 resulted in the blocking of roads around Maputo, including the N1. On Dec. 7, pro-Mondlane protesters attacked the two power plants near Ressano Garcia, forcing the national utility Electricidade de Mocambique (EDM) to implement rolling power cuts impacting Maputo through Dec. 9.
Mondlane of the lead opposition Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos) continues to dispute the results of the Oct. 9 general election. Since late October, his calls have led to demonstrations across Mozambique, drawing thousands of supporters into street protests. Armed forces are regularly deployed to quell the violence, reportedly using tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition. Authorities confirmed restricting internet access to prevent the spread of unrest. As of Dec. 11, NGO reports suggest at least 110 protesters may have been killed since the start of the unrest.
Protests or counter-protests will likely draw thousands in the coming days. Protest activity will likely occur in large urban areas, such as Beira, Maputo, Nacala, Nampula, Pemba, and Quelimane; other coastal or border cities could be similarly affected. The northern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Niassa are also likely hotspots. In Maputo, movements will likely concentrate near Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) and National Electoral Commission (CNE) offices near Kenneth Kaunda Avenue and Joaquin Chissano Avenue. Demonstrations could lead to road blockages and acts of arson; shutdowns could lead to business and public services closures. Trade unions may also call for strikes. Additional protests near borders or in airports could lead to closures and affect ground and air travel. Incidents of looting could target large retail stores, foreign businesses, and mining compounds. Increased security is likely nationwide, especially near protest locations. Security measures may include checkpoints, increased patrolling in urban centers, border restrictions, internet and telecommunication blackouts, and curfews. Violence between opposing party members or involving security services is likely and will pose an incidental danger to bystanders. Peripheral incidents of criminal violence, not necessarily connected with the election, are possible.
Power outages could temporarily unavailability of essential services such as ATMs and filling stations. Water supply outages or decreases in water pressure may occur in areas that rely on electrical pumps for water flow. There is an increased security threat during power outages. Blackouts could adversely affect security protocols, including alarm systems and electronic fences; opportunistic criminal activity increases during electricity outages. Malfunctioning traffic signals increase the risk of accidents at intersections, and the lack of public lighting may elevate the risk of driving at night.
Some foreign diplomatic missions have warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements during such events.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through at least Dec. 11. Avoid all gatherings, political events, election-related activities, and concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly yellow clothes as they may be associated with the political opposition. Exercise caution near police offices, border posts, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Reconfirm flights before departure. Reconfirm appointments and plan for increased employee absenteeism during strike actions. Plan accordingly for disruptions to freight and passenger travel across borders, as well as for telecommunications and commercial operations. Consider alternative modes of communication for critical business operations. Monitor local news for information on possible curfews, communication outages, and road conditions. Heed the advice of local authorities. Do not attempt to pass through police checkpoints without authorities' permission. Ahead of power outages, identify business-critical functions that require a power supply. Power laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Consider stocking up on bottled water in the event that power outages impact water distribution. Monitor announcements from the utility. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
On Oct. 9, Mozambican citizens voted to elect a new president, parliament, and regional governmental officials. Opposition parties called the process fraudulent before the election results were announced, and Mondlane claimed an early victory. On Oct. 24, the CNE confirmed Daniel Chapo, Frelimo's new leader, as president with 70 percent of the vote; Frelimo secured 195 of 250 parliamentary seats and won all provincial governorships. Over half of registered voters abstained. The results have yet to be certified by the Constitutional Council. Opposition parties, including Podemos, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), and Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), have rejected and appealed the results. A meeting between the MDM, Podemos, Renamo, and Frelimo candidates, and President Nyusi on Nov. 26 was postponed after three did not attend.
Nationwide protests followed each announcement, mostly led by Podemos and Mondlane. On Oct. 21, a first strike followed the alleged political killing of two high-ranking Podemos members. On Oct. 24-25, a two-day nationwide shutdown was called in anticipation of the release of election results. Between Oct. 31-Nov. 7, he then called for nationwide protests near the CNE and Frelimo offices. Between Nov. 13-16, Mondlane asked protesters to specifically target economically significant locations, including Maputo, provincial capitals, ports, and borders. On Nov. 18, authorities announced they were investigating Mondlane to demand compensation for the damages caused by the protests. On Nov. 20-22, protests were more peaceful, with road blockages and travel disruptions reported across Maputo. On Nov. 23, Frelimo supporters held a counter-protest in Maputo in support of Chapo's electoral victory. On Nov. 27-29, protests led to road blockages, clashes, looting, and acts of minor arson. In the latest wave of protests Dec. 4-11, Mondlane asked supporters to disrupt traffic between 08:00-15:00 and to voice their support using whistles and vuvuzelas (blowing horns).
Other disruptive events included: on Oct. 27, an attack on a police office, also in Chalaua, during which at least one officer died; on Oct. 28, the invasion and destruction of a mining compound near Chalaua, Nampula Province; Nov. 5-9 skirmishes, road blockages, and looting in Ressano Garcia near the Lebombo border with South Africa leading to its closure; on Nov. 27, a protester was injured after being run over by a military vehicle. Two South African journalists were reportedly detained before being released on Nov. 15.
