06 Dec 2024 | 02:47 PM UTC
Syria: Additional armed clashes are likely in parts of the country through December /update 1
Further violence likely in Syria through December as rebels claim control of several areas; severe transport, business disruptions likely.
The security situation in Syria is likely to remain highly volatile through at least late December following insurgents' capture of several formerly government-held areas, including the entirety of Idlib Governorate in addition to the cities of Aleppo and Hama. Hundreds of rebel combatants, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and government-aligned military personnel have been killed in the latest round of fighting that began on Nov. 27. There is ongoing fighting in Hama and Homs governorates, with opposition forces assembling to seize Homs city. Unconfirmed reports suggest opposition forces based in Daraa Governorate in Syria's southwest have taken control of several locations, including areas close to the Jordanian border.
Due to security concerns, Jordanian authorities closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria on Dec. 6; Iraqi authorities closed their border with Syria on Nov. 30. Increased security measures and further border closures remain possible as long as the fighting continues.
These clashes between rebels and Syrian government forces have occurred against the backdrop of regular Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Shi'a militias in Syria. The Israeli military is likely to continue such operations in the coming days and weeks.
Meanwhile, the HTS' military success in Aleppo and Idlib may inspire further pockets of resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation worsens, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Arab tribes in northeastern Syria may also intensify.
The Islamic State (IS), one of the most potent militant groups in Syria, will likely increase its attacks on Syrian government forces, foreigners, and civilians. The incidence of criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will likely rise amid the deterioration of the security environment.
The renewed conflict between HTS and Syrian government forces will almost certainly cause severe disruptions to transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in Aleppo and Hama will likely suspend operations as fighting persists. Traffic on major highways will also almost certainly be disrupted as the insurgents have reportedly cut off the M5 highway, which connects Damascus and Aleppo, and gained control of the strategic M4-M5 junction, which links Aleppo to Latakia on the Mediterranean coast. As the conflict develops, further transport disruptions and restrictions are likely.
Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid conflict-impacted locations until the situation stabilizes. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and all public gatherings. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water. Review contingency plans. Reconfirm all transport arrangements, including flights.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), meaning "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant," is a Sunni insurgent group that emerged in January 2017 through a merger of multiple militant and rebel factions. HTS' predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, was an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization formed in 2012 with the goal of overthrowing the Syrian government following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. The UN, EU, and several countries, including the US and UK, have designated HTS as a terrorist organization.
HTS' latest offensive occurs against the backdrop of the Israel-LH conflict and escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. The group likely saw the new geopolitical landscape as advantageous for its offensive, capitalizing on the preoccupation of the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) militants in Lebanon. The Syrian government will almost certainly face intense opposition and fierce fighting as it attempts to regain control of Aleppo and other areas in northwestern Syria.
