Syria: Security situation likely to remain volatile through at least late December following fall of Assad government /update 5

The security situation in Syria will remain highly volatile through at least late December following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government. The insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, with al-Assad and his family reportedly fleeing the country to Moscow. Damascus International Airport (DAM) has halted all flights; the facility will reportedly be closed through Dec. 18. Insurgents have lifted a curfew in Damascus and its surrounding area, as well as in Latakia and Tartus, that was previously implemented in the initial aftermath of al-Assad's government collapsing.

Reports indicate that Iran and Russia have withdrawn their military advisers and employees from their embassies in Damascus. Latakia and Tartus still host Russian military installations; as of Dec. 11, reports indicate that, while rebels surround Russian military facilities, they have not entered the bases.

HTS' military successes have fueled further resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation deteriorates, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups in northeastern Syria will also probably escalate. Authorities in the so-called Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) - a Kurdish-controlled de facto self-governing region encompassing Al-Hasaka Governorate, as well as parts of Ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor governorates - have declared a state of emergency effective Dec. 8. The move is in direct response to the recent developments in the country and the increasing uncertainty in the nation's security situation.

Border Closures
In response to security concerns, Jordanian authorities have closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria. The Iraqi border with Syria also remains closed, and Lebanon has reportedly closed all land border crossings with Syria, except for one linking Beirut and Damascus, due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. On Dec. 8, Israel's Prime Minister announced that he had ordered the Israeli military to deploy and "seize" the demilitarized buffer zone on the border with Syria, in the Golan Heights. Additional border closures and enhanced security measures are possible as the fighting continues.

Diplomatic Advisories
Several foreign governments issued or reiterated Syria travel advisories in early December. The US Department of State has issued a security alert advising US citizens to leave Damascus while commercial travel options remain available. The UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office has reiterated its earlier advisory urging British nationals to leave Syria by any available means. The French government also issued a statement strongly advising its nationals to depart. India's Ministry of External Affairs has issued a similar warning advising against travel and urging nationals to leave by the earliest available commercial flights. The Chinese Embassy in Syria is recommending that Chinese nationals depart while commercial flights are still operational. Other governments have issued similar advisories; further updates are almost certain as the situation evolves.

Foreign Airstrikes
The Israeli military continues to carry out airstrikes in Syria. Since Dec. 8, and the fall of the Assad's government, reports indicate that the IDF has launched hundreds of strikes throughout Syria, targeting military facilities of the Syrian Army, including weapon warehouses, airports, and naval bases, mainly centered around Aleppo, Damascus, and Hama. Reports indicate that Israel is particularly concerned over Assad's strategic weapons systems, including long-range missile and chemical weapons. IDF will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.

Additionally, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing its campaign of airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) as part of an ongoing effort to prevent the group from reconstituting. On Dec. 8, US bombers, fighter-bombers, and ground-attack aircraft struck at least 75 IS targets in central Syria. CENTCOM could ramp up such strikes over the coming weeks to ensure IS capabilities remain degraded.

Turkish forces also continue to carry out airstrikes in northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces, with clashes reported between the SDF and the SNA in the east.

Militant Attacks
IS, one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will also likely increase as the security environment worsens.

Transport and Business Disruptions
The escalation of fighting between HTS and Syrian government forces will severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in major cities, including Damascus, Aleppo, and Hama, will likely suspend operations until the situation stabilizes. Increased security will likely impact traffic along the main highways between Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. Different rebel groups could impose movement restrictive measures, including curfews, in areas under their control.